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October 2011

Prospects Weekly: First trade data released for September are not promising

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
First trade data released for September are not promising, with most countries reporting lower import volumes, suggesting that the risk of a worldwide deceleration in demand is real. Meanwhile with all three major rating agencies downgrading Spain’s long-term sovereign debt rating in the past few days, the sovereign credit quality-gap between developing and developed countries continued to narrow.

Prospects Weekly: Data releases suggests that capital good orders appear to be holding firm

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Recent data releases suggests  that capital good orders from developing countries  appear to be holding firm, despite heightened  uncertainty in the global economy. Sovereign bond spreads for emerging markets have narrowed recently, amid bolder attempts to address the eurozone debt crisis. While the decline in spreads is welcome, their sensitivity to events in Europe is worrisome.

Prospects Weekly: Concerns about global economic prospects amid loss of confidence

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Concerns about global economic prospects amid heightened financial market turmoil are weighing on consumer spending despite the relief coming from lower commodity prices. Associated uncertainty is reflected in a sharp decline of gross capital flows to developing countries in Q3, with bond and equity flows having plunged as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Global Commodity Watch - October 2011

John Baffes's picture

Non-energy commodity prices fell by 2.5 percent in September on weaker demand prospects and appreciation of the dollar—up 2.9 percent against a broad group of U.S. trading partners. Declines were heaviest for metals, and less so for agriculture products. Energy prices edged higher. Since end-December, energy prices are up 11.6 percent, agriculture prices are up 1.1 percent, while metals have fallen 4.0 percent. Most main commodity indices peaked early in the year and have since declined on slowing demand.

Prospects Daily: Moody's downgrades 21 European commercial banks -- heating up the financial crisis

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Important developments today:

1. Moody’s downgrades 12 U.K. banks and 9 Portuguese institutions

2. U.S. employment growth in September bests economists’ estimates

3. German output falls less-than-expected after July’s surge; but orders slow

 

World published latest commodity prices: October 2011

John Baffes's picture

In September 2011 energy prices were up marginally.  Non-energy prices fell further by 2.5%; food prices were down by 1.0%; beverages dropped by 3.0%; raw materials prices declined by 1.5%; metals dropped by 4.8%; fertilizers were up by 2.2%.  The US dollar appreciated 4.1% against the euro and 2.9% against a broad index of currencies.
 

 

Indices of Nominal US$ Prices, Percent  Changes (August to September 2011).