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July 2012

Prospects Daily: U.S. non-transport factory orders and new home sales fall; German business sentiment deteriorates

Important developments today:

1. U.S. durable goods orders rise in June, but non-transport orders fall by most since January

2. New and pending US home sales fall in June suggesting subdued housing market recovery

3. German business sentiment deteriorates, but consumers remain upbeat

Prospects Daily: Spanish borrowing costs climb above 7% again, while US unemployment claims rise

Important developments today:

1. Spain’s borrowing costs rise above 7% again, following the country’s new bond auction

2. U.S. unemployment claims rise, while existing home sales surprise on the downside

3. On agriculture, the drought and heat wave that has been afflicting most grain producing areas in U.S.

Prospects Daily: Italian bonds decline on Moody’s rating cut; U.S consumer confidence drops to lowest level in 2012 in July

Important developments today:

1. Global financial markets remain sensitive to changing sentiments with developments in the Euro Area contributing to the recent volatility

2. Italian bonds decline on Moody’s rating cut

3. U.S. consumer confidence drops to lowest level in 2012 in July

Prospects Weekly: Recent volatility in global financial markets has been driven mainly by developments in Euro Area

Recent volatility in global financial markets has been driven mainly by developments in Euro Area.  The resurgence of the Euro Area crisis in May led to massive sell-offs in global equities between late April and early June – with a loss in value of $5.9 trillion. Further, borrowing costs for Spanish and Italian bonds reached record highs.

Prospects Daily: Dollar falls as investors speculate further Fed stimulus program; US trade deficit narrows in May

Important developments today:

1. Dollar falls as investors speculate further Fed stimulus program

2. U.S. trade deficit narrows in May on weaker international oil prices

3. U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2012/13 global maize production estimate by 5%

World Bank published latest commodity prices: July 2012

John Baffes's picture

In June 2012 prices fell further with energy plummeting by 12% and non-energy declining by 3.6%.  Food prices dropped by 1.2%, beverages weakened by 4%, raw materials cut by 6.8%, metals soften by 5.1% and fertilizers fell by 5.3%. The US dollar appreciated 2.1% against the euro and 1.4% against a broad index of currencies.

Prospects Weekly: Renewed Euro Area tensions cut into capital flows to developing countries in May and June

Renewed Euro Area tensions cut into capital flows to developing countries in May and June, and prompted a sharp downturn in business sentiment worldwide. Together these developments point to slower growth in 2012Q2 and Q3, unless recent improvements in financial markets and policy steps cause business sentiment to strengthen.

World Bank published latest commodity prices: June 2012

John Baffes's picture

In May 2012 the prices continued their fall with energy plummeting by 7.6% and the non-energy falling by 2.5%.  Food prices declined by 2.1%, beverages up by 1.3%, raw materials dropped by 1.9%, metals down by 4.7% and on balance fertilizers appeared unchanged. The US dollar appreciated 2.7% against the euro and 1.7% against a broad index of currencies.