Global Economic Prospects 2014

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March 2014

Prospects Daily: Turkish lira surges to near three-month high against U.S. dollar, Eurozone annual inflation slows to a 52-month low, Turkey’s annual GDP growth in 2013Q4 beats expectations

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Financial Markets…Developing-country stocks advanced on Monday, heading for the longest streak of gains since July, as Russia and the U.S. sought a diplomatic solution to reduce tensions over Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region over the weekend. The benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index gained 0.5%, trimming its quarterly loss to 1.3% in the first quarter of this year. Russia’s Micex stock index rose for a second day, but the gauge is still down 10% this year, heading for its steepest quarterly drop since 2011.

Prospects Daily: Indian rupee at a seven-month high, U.K. inflation at a four-year low, China’s leading economic index rises in February

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Financial Markets…India’s rupee climbed to a seven-month high against the dollar as foreign investors stepped up purchases of the nation’s stocks and bonds by $3.5 billion this month amid election optimism. Investors have speculated the election of a new government will accelerate the country’s economic recovery. The currency gained 0.5% to 60.478 per dollar after appreciating to 60.475, the strongest level since August 12.

Prospects Daily: Developing-country shares turn weaker, U.K. raises growth forecasts, South Africa’s inflation rises for third consecutive month

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Financial Markets…Developing-country stocks fell for the first time this week on China concern. The benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 0.3%, snapping a two-day gain, as China’s broader stock index dropped 0.8% and the country’s currency weakened to near an 11-month low against the dollar. The collapse of property stocks and an increase in money-market rate spurred a slide in Chinese stocks. Russian stocks posted sharp declines as well amid lingering tensions over Ukraine.

Prospects Daily: Developing-country shares extend gains on easing concerns over Ukraine, German ZEW investor confidence lowest since August, Turkey leaves key policy rates unchanged

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Financial Markets…Developing-country stocks advanced for a second day on Tuesday, leading a global stock rally, as concerns over the Ukrainian conflict eased after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he did not want to split up its neighbor.  The benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index rose 0.7% with the Russia’s Micex index surging 4.1%, building on yesterday’s gains.  Indian shares climbed to record highs amid strong demand by foreign investors, and benchmark stock indexes in Hungary and Turkey posted at least 1.8% gains.

Prospects Daily: Russian stocks and bonds slump amid growing tension with Ukraine, U.K. industrial production disappoints, India’s exports fall in February

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Financial Markets…Brazilian state-run oil company Petrobras sold $8.5 billion of international bonds yesterday, as the company continued to raise funds for its massive investment plan (some $221 billion over the next five years). The transaction comprised of six tranches with four different maturities. Petrobras’ bonds accounted for 40% of total bonds sold by Latin American sovereign and corporate borrowers thus far this year. The company also issued record-breaking $11 billion worth of debt last May.

Prospects Daily: U.S. stock reaches fresh record high on jobs report, U.S. employers add 175K jobs in February despite harsh weather, Mexico’s inflation rate slows, South Africa’s reserves increase

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U.S. stock reaches fresh record high on jobs report… U.S. employers add 175K jobs in February despite harsh weather…Mexico’s inflation rate slows, South Africa’s reserves increase

 

Prospects Daily: Spanish and Italian borrowing costs reach multi-years lows, U.S and U.K service sectors continue to expand, China sets 2014 growth target at 7.5%

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Financial Markets… Spanish and Italian 10-year borrowing costs touched multi-years lows on Wednesday as the latest surveys showed the euro-area services and manufacturing grew more-than-expected in February, boosting demand for the region’s high-yielding bonds. Spain’s 10-year bond yield fell as much as 9 basis points to 3.35%, the lowest level since October 2005. Improving creditworthiness of the two countries drove their 10-year government bond yields to below 4% this year for the first time since 2010.

World Bank published latest commodity prices: March 2014

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In February of 2014, energy prices increased by 2.5% and the prices of non-energy commodities also increased by 1.9%. Food prices were up by 3.6% as beverages skyrocketed by 10.4%. Raw materials were off by 0.3% while fertilizers climbed by 1.6%. Metals eased by 2.2%, while precious metals jumped by 4.4%.
 
To access recent and long-term historical prices and other commodity-related information, please click here.

Prospects Daily: Global stocks bounce back as Ukraine tensions ease, OECD inflation rises slightly in January, China’s PMI at 7-month low

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Financial Markets…Global equities bounced back on Tuesday as Ukraine tensions eased. The rebound was led by European stocks with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index advancing 2.1%, the biggest rally in eight months. The European gauge tumbled 2.3% yesterday after Russia’s parliament granted President Putin the authority to use military force in Ukraine. Asian and developing-country shares also recovered amid improving investor sentiment. U.S. equities gained as well, with the S&P 500 index surging 1.4% to a fresh record high in mid-day trading.