Global Economic Prospects 2014

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Prospects Daily: Global equities slid on Hong Kong protests, Eurozone economic confidence falls to 10-month low, Turkey’s consumer confidence rises in September

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Financial Markets

Global stock markets retreated on Monday as civil unrest in Hong Kong SAR, China increased risk aversion among investors, while U.S. Treasuries advanced on safe-haven appeal.  The benchmark MSCI world stock index fell 0.5% in early trading, but it recovered slightly after strong U.S. economic data pushed U.S. equities higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield slid 4 basis points (bps) to 2.49% in morning trade.

Prospects Weekly: Fossil fuel subsidies on average amount to 4.3 percent, Energy subsidies are motivated by socioeconomic goals, Political economy of implementing subsidy reforms remains a challenge

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Energy subsidies in developing countries amount, on average, to 4.3 percent of GDP, with wide cross-country variation. Though intended to achieve socio-economic goals, in reality, subsidies often encourage excess consumption and benefit the poor less than the rich. Transparency and credible plans to compensate the poorest can help implement subsidy reforms.
 

Prospects Daily: U.S. stocks rebound from yesterday’s sharp sell-off, Eurozone’s leading index falls, Brazil’s producer price inflation eases in August

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Financial Markets

U.S. equities opened higher on Friday after posting their largest fall since July that wiped out $320 billion in market valuations, helped by robust corporate earnings results and stronger-than-expected GDP growth. The S&P 500 and the Down Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and 0.4% in morning trade. European shares advanced as well, bouncing back from a four-week low, while Asian and developing-country benchmark indexes extended their losses.

Prospects Daily: U.S. government bonds extend gains on increased safe-haven demand, U.S. manufacturing PMI remains at 52-week high, China’s flash PMI edges up in August

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Financial Markets

U.S. Treasuries gained for a fourth day on Tuesday, the longest winning streak in two months, as demand for safe-haven government debt increased following the U.S. air strike in Syria, which triggered concerns about the extent of U.S. military involvement and effects oil prices. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points (bps) to 2.54%, the lowest level since September 11. German bunds advanced as well with benchmark 10-year yields sliding to 1% for the first time in two weeks.

Prospects Weekly: isis has not significatly disrupted Iraq's oil production or global oil prices, Growth across the region and in commmodity importers could slow sharply

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The rise of ISIS in the Middle East is a geopolitical risk in a region already facing a multitude of conflicts. Thus far, the economic impacts of the ISIS incursion in Iraq and Syria remain subdued and largely limited to those countries. Over time, however, the potential for global spillovers is likely to rise.
 

Prospects Daily: Developing-country stocks continue to struggle on U.S. rate outlook,U.S. jobless claims falls to lowest in more than decade, China’s house price falls further

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Financial Markets

U.S. stocks and dollar surged as the Federal Reserve’s latest rate outlook added to signs that monetary policy spilt between the U.S. and other G3 countries is widening. The S&P 500 index gained 0.4% in morning trade, and the Dow average advanced 0.5% to a record high level. The greenback climbed to highest levels in more than six years versus the yen and four years against other major currencies.

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