Global Economic Prospects 2014

Five years after the financial crisis, the world economy is showing signs of bouncing back. Read more ...

Development Prospects

Providing information, analysis, and advice on global trends in the world economy.  Find out more ...

Global Economic Monitor

Now free. Daily and monthly updates on global economic developments and relevant topical issues. Find out more ...

Syndicate content


Prospects Daily: Brazil real extends losses on turmoil in Middle East and Ukraine, U.S. durable goods orders rise more-than-expected in June, Mexico’s trade surplus declines

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets

The U.S. dollar extended gains, rising to a fresh 8-month high against the euro on Friday as durable goods orders rose more-than-expected and a gauge of German business confidence fell more than economists’ forecast hurt by geo-political tensions. The dollar rose 0.2% to $1.3433 per euro after advancing to $1.3428 the strongest since November 21.

Prospects Daily: India’s stocks rally for 8th day to record high, U.S.’s Markit flash Manufacturing PMI falls in July, China’s flash Manufacturing PMI rises strongly

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets

U.S.’s Treasuries dropped on Thursday as reports showed that U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell to an 8-year low in July. The 10-year yield rose by 4.0 basis points to 2.51% in afternoon trading in New York. The 30-year yield also rose by 4.0 basis points to 3.30% after falling to 3.24% on July 21, its lowest level since June 7, 2013. Year-to-date, Treasuries have gained 3.6%, compared to a loss of 3.4% last year.


Prospects Daily: European stocks advance while dollar gains on higher U.S. yields, U.S. June consumer price inflation in line with estimates, South Africa’s leading index rises slightly

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets

European stocks rose on Tuesday, rebounding from three consecutive days of losses, amid a global rebound in risk appetite, helped by signs of reduced tensions over the downed Malaysian Airlines plane. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.3% in mid-afternoon trading in London after falling 1.5% in the past three days amid tensions over the Ukraine crisis and as intense fighting in Gaza unsettled investors.

Prospects Daily: Global stock market indexes fall amid Gaza and Ukraine concerns, U.K.’s consumer confidence falls for first time in 2014, China signs currency swap agreement with Switzerland

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets

Major global stock market indexes fell while bond prices rallied on Monday amid worries over the Gaza strip and Ukraine. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5% to 337.95 at the close in London following a 0.8% gain last week. U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.3%, France’s CAC40 lost 0.7%, and Germany Dax fell 1.1% to its lowest level since May 9. In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 115 points, or 0.7% to below 17,000 and the S&P 500 index retreated 12 points or 0.6% in mid-afternoon.

Prospects Weekly: Growth in China was 7.5 percent in the second quarter of 2014, Weak activity in the Euro Area and strengthening growth in the US, Steady stock-to-use ratios suggest that grain markets are adequately supplied

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
Second quarter growth in China was broadly stable at 7.5 percent in line with expectations, with little indication thus far of a rebalancing away from investment towards consumption. Weak activity in the Euro Area and strengthening growth in the US have led to the widest level of the long-term yield spread in fifteen years. Steady stock-to-use ratios suggest a broadly stable outlook for most grain prices.

Commodity Markets Outlook July 2014

John Baffes's picture
The World Bank just published the Commodity Market Outlook report for the second quarter of 2014.

Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. Yet, as tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to ease to $104/barrel in 2015 from $106/barrel in 2014.