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Global Economic Prospects 2013

Global economy remains fragile; high-income countries suffering from slow growth. Read more ...

Development Prospects

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Global Macroeconomics Team's blog

DECPG Daily : May 24, 2013 - Bond yields are up…German business confidence improves, Italian drops…Peru GDP slows

Financial Markets…Japans’ Topix index gained 0.5% today, bouncing backing slightly from its biggest drop since the 2011 earthquake and nuclear disaster. Yesterday’s plunge, which many investors suggested marked a long-overdue correction, cut the Topix’s 2013 gain to 38% to 48%, and erased $314 billion in stock market valuation.

Prospects Daily: Japan affirms its monetary easing plans, US housing market continues recover, Russia industrial production slows

Financial Markets…The yen weakened to a three-year low against the euro on Wednesday, slumping to as low as 133.30 per euro in early trading, as the Bank of Japan affirmed its plan to expand the monetary base and upgraded its assessment of the economy. Weakening yen pushed the benchmark Nikkei stock index to the highest closing level since December 2007.

Prospects Daily: Gold, silver continue declines, US leading indicator improves, Thailand and Chile GDP growth slows

Financial Markets…The yen gained the most in three weeks versus the dollar on Monday, appreciating 0.7% to 102.56 per dollar, after Japan’s economy minister suggested further slide in the currency may have negative effects. Japan’s currency declined 21% in the past six months and fell to a 41/2 year low last week. Weaker yen have pushed Japanese government bonds lower and sent the country’ benchmark stock index to a 41/2 year high.

Prospects Daily: Turkish bond yields at record lows on rating upgrade, Spain posts first monthly trade surplus, Russia and Mexico GDP slows.

Financial Markets…Turkish government bonds rallied on Friday, with the benchmark 2-year note yield sliding 19 basis points to a record low of 4.61%, after Moody’s Investor Service raised the country’s credit rating to investment grade for the first time in two decades. Rates on the 2-year bonds have tumbled 138 bps this year. The nation’s stocks also rallied, sending the Borsa Istanbul 100 index gained as much as 1.3% to record highs.

World Bank publishes Commodity Price Forecasts - May 2013

The World Bank just published the May 2013 edition of commodity price forecasts. Most prices are expected to decline in 2013, a reflection of improved supply conditions (most commodities, including food), diminished geopolitical risks (crude oil), less appetite for safe haven assets (precious metals), and lower energy prices (fertilizers).

Prospects Daily: Italian and Spanish bonds fall, Eurozone remains in recession, Malaysia GDP growth slows

Financial Markets…Foreign demand for US assets declined for a second consecutive month in March as signs of global economic stability encouraged the “risk on” trade. Net foreign sales of long-term US equities, bonds, and other financial assets totaled $13.5 billion during the month of March, up slightly from a net selling of $13.3 billion in February.

Prospects Daily: Eurozone IP recovers, Brazil’s Petrobras sells the largest developing-country debt on record, India’s inflation eases in April

Financial Markets… Japanese government bonds declined for a third day on Tuesday, sending 5-year yields to a near two-year high of 0.4%, as a rise in country’s stocks and U.S. Treasury yields damped demand for the country’s debt which carries one of the lowest yields in the world. The benchmark 10-year bond yield climbed as much as 61/2 basis points to 0.855%.

Prospects Daily: Dollar continues to rise, US retail sales flat in April, Chinese investment eases

Financial Markets…The dollar extended its gains on Monday, pushing oil and gold prices lower, on a better-than-expected US retail sales report for April, bolstering optimism in the world’s biggest economy. The DXY index, which tracks the greenback’s values against its major counterparts, has gained 5% since Friday. The S&P 500 index opened lower amid some profit taking after rising to a record high on Friday. US Treasuries meanwhile continued to fall, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield to a seven-week high of 1.92%, on lower demand for safe-haven government bonds.

Prospects Daily: Japanese Yen weakens further…German exports pick up…Mexican industrial production contracts sharply

Financial Markets…G3 government bonds declined on Friday, as signs that their economies is improving amid monetary stimulus damped demand for the safe-haven debt. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose as much as 6 basis points to a five-week high of 1.87%, while comparable yields on German and Japanese bonds climbed 3 bps and 10 bps to 1.3% and 0.69%, respectively.

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