Global Economic Prospects 2015

The global economy is still struggling to gain momentum. Read more ...

Development Prospects

Providing information, analysis, and advice on global trends in the world economy.  Find out more ...

Global Economic Monitor

Now free. Daily and monthly updates on global economic developments and relevant topical issues. Find out more ...

Syndicate content

Inflation

Low oil prices and monetary policy in developing countries: Mind the gap!

Ayhan Kose's picture
Excluding a handful of oil exporters or countries where sharply depreciating currencies or domestic factors caused inflation to soar, developing country inflation has fallen quite significantly over the past few months and is expected this year to be at its lowest level since 2009 (Figure 1). The broad-based pattern of slowing inflation has been largely driven by plunging oil prices, albeit to varying degrees reflecting in particular exchange rate developments, the extent of fuel subsidies and other price regulations.

Macroeconomic implications of the recent oil price decline

Raju Huidrom's picture
Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel (bbl), oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. It is not the first sharp oil price swing: there have been five other episodes of oil price drops in excess of 30 percent and several more episodes of oil price spikes. Over the past five decades, these steep drops and spikes have stimulated an extensive literature on the macroeconomic implications of oil price swings and the channels through which they operate.

Prospects Daily: US consumer confidence falls; inflation moderated in Chile, Peru and Mexico but rose slightly in Brazil

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture


Financial Markets…U.S. Treasuries slid for the first time in four days, with the benchmark note yields 3 basis points to 1.62%, as a government report showed U.S. employers added more than forecasted jobs in November. U.S government bonds have advanced 2.8% this year as of yesterday, after gaining 9.8% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2010.