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World Bank publishes Commodity Price Forecasts - May 2013

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
The World Bank just published the May 2013 edition of commodity price forecasts. Most prices are expected to decline in 2013, a reflection of improved supply conditions (most commodities, including food), diminished geopolitical risks (crude oil), less appetite for safe haven assets (precious metals), and lower energy prices (fertilizers).

Oil prices are expected to average US$ 102/barrel during 2013, down from US$ 105/barrel in 2012 (2.5 percent decline). The metal price index is expected to decline 1.3 percent, food prices down 5.5 percent, precious metals down 10.7 percent, and fertilizer prices down 7.1 percent. Most price risks are on the downside, except food the outlook of which could change on adverse weather conditions.

Nominal price indices--actual and forecasts (2005 = 100)

  ACTUAL   FORECAST   CHANGE (%)
  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012   2013 2014   2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Energy 182 114 145 188 187   183 181   -0.4 -2.1 -1.2
Non-Energy 182 142 174 210 190   181 179   -9.5 -4.7 -1.1
  Metals 180 120 180 205 174   172 173   -15.3 -1.3 0.8
  Agriculture 171 149 170 209 194   182 179   -7.2 -5.9 -1.8
    Food 186 156 170 210 212   200 192   0.7 -5.5 -4.0
       Grains 223 169 172 239 244   242 226   2.4 -1.0 -6.4
       Fats and oils 209 165 184 223 230   209 202   3.3 -9.0 -3.2
       Other food 124 131 148 168 158   150 147   -5.9 -5.0 -2.1
    Beverages 152 157 182 208 166   151 153   -20.2 -8.9 0.8
    Raw Materials 143 129 166 207 165   156 162   -20.0 -5.8 4.1
  Fertilizers 399 204 187 267 259   241 229   -2.9 -7.1 -4.8
Precious metals 197 212 272 372 378   338 328   1.7 -10.7 -3.0
Memorandum items                        
  Crude oil ($/bbl) 97 62 79 104 105   102 101   1.0 -2.5 -1.3
  Gold ($/toz) 872 973 1,225 1,569 1,670   1,500 1,450   6.4 -10.2 -3.3
Source: World Bank                        


To download detailed price forecasts, please click here