Global Economic Prospects 2014

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Submitted by Tim Miltz on
Perhaps Hans Timmer will write another article reflecting the impact of China's grain crisis resultant from the worst drought in 60 years. As China is the world's largest grain producer and yet it's not even in the top 4 exporters ? To me this spells disaster with it's nearest most convenient exporter Russia unable to help. This means China will put stress on global grain supply. Sure this may help US exports in 2011, but this goes against the grain in that US currency is inflated right now and other nations have been excessively conservative in valuation of their currencies. I honestly wonder if China can afford to buy from the US. All I can see if China will finally be forced to adjust their currency at perhaps the worst time for US consumers who they so need for their exports- last I checked, every item in MY house is Made in China. Just about everything. I keep looking for 'Made in China' on my currency in the US- but it's not there yet. China's drought should really slam grain markets hard - I wish I had money - I'd buy futures now on grain, Timmer points out it jumped 10% in one day on Russia's announcement that it would be holding back exports. Gee, just last thursday we find China is going to be in serious deficit of having enough grain. Math there isn't too hard. On the dark side- it doesn't seem to be 'right' - or moral to seek profits from volatile markets. It seems it only fuels the volatility to do so. I wonder what Goldman Sachs will be doing on Grain futures before March 2011 hits. Sad at some level everything is profit driven for numbers on a piece of paper. BEST PART ? Canada and US Farmers can't replant their own seeds anymore - the patents on genetically altered seeds prevent them from doing so, over 660 billion has been harvested from farmers since 1997 in US and Canada. So, TOPPING IT ALL OFF ? US and Canada won't be there FOR China's grain crisis. Drought and global catastrophic climate change unfortunately can't be 'written off' on paper. I do hope Hans Timmer ads some more insights on China here. He's one of my my guiding lights on matters of global economy and futures. Tim Miltz