Global Economic Prospects 2014

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Prospects Daily: ​U.S. Treasuries gain and dollar falls on weaker jobs report, Eurozone stagnates in Q2, Brazil industrial production increased for the first time in six months

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Financial Markets
 
U.S. Treasuries advanced and the dollar weakened after a report showing weaker job growth in August boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary accommodation for the time being. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid 2 basis points (bps) to 2.44%, after climbing to an almost 1-month high of 2.47% earlier. The dollar fell from a nearly 6-year high versus the yen in early trading, and the greenback also scaled back from a 14-month high against the euro.

World Bank published latest commodity prices: September 2014

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In August 2014, energy prices decreased by 4.5% and the prices of non-energy commodities went down slightly by 0.6%. Food prices were down by 0.8%. Beverages went up by 2.5%. Raw materials went down by 3.4% while fertilizers were up by 3.3%. Metals and minerals decreased by 0.2%, and precious metals by 2.1%.
 
To access recent and long-term historical prices and other commodity-related information, please click here.
 
Indices of Nominal US$ Prices, Percent Changes (m/m).

World Bank published latest commodity prices: August 2014

John Baffes's picture
In July 2014, energy prices decreased by 3.5% and the prices of non-energy commodities went up by 0.1%. Food prices were down by 2.8%. Beverages went up by 1.2%. Raw materials went down slightly by 0.7% while fertilizers were up by 2.9%. Metals increased by 4.5%, and precious metals by 3%.

To access recent and long-term historical prices and other commodity-related information, please click here.

Indices of Nominal US$ Prices, Percent Changes (m/m).

Prospects Daily: China’s stocks post biggest monthly gain since 2012, Eurozone’s consumer price inflation slows to near 5-year low, Philippines’ central bank hikes key policy rates

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Financial Markets

China’s stocks rose on Thursday, sending benchmark indexes to their highest monthly gain since December 2012, amid optimism government stimulus will boost economic growth. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9% to 2,201.56 at the close, the highest level since December 2012, for a monthly gain of 7.5%. Meanwhile the CSI 300 Index advanced 1.2% for a July gain of 8.6%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, or H-shares gauge, rose 0.2%, extending a rebound since a March low to a 21.0% monthly gain.

Prospects Daily: Argentine bonds surge to 3-year high on prospect of a deal to avoid the country’s second default, U.S. GDP rebounds more strongly-than-expected in Q2, China’s consumer sentiment rises in July

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Financial Markets

Argentine bonds surged to a three-year high Wednesday on speculation that government officials and holdout creditors are nearing a deal to avert the country’s second default in 13 years. Argentine dollar bonds maturing in 2033 rose 10 cents on the dollar to 95.5 Wednesday morning in New York, the highest since November 2010. The yield fell to 8.8% from 10.1%. Argentine stocks traded in the U.S. also rose, gaining as much as 31%, while the country’s benchmark Merval stock index advanced 4.8% in Buenos Aires.

Prospects Daily: Dollar rises to highest level in seven weeks on optimism about the U.S. recovery…OECD area consumer price inflation steady at 2.1% in June…South Africa’s jobless rate rises further to 25.5% in Q2

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Financial Markets

Emerging-market stocks advanced to an 18-month high as investors waited for the start of a meeting of the Federal Reserve today. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 0.2% to reach 1,081.64 in mid-afternoon trading in London, heading for its highest close since January 2013. The gauge has gained 7.9% this year; in comparison, the MSCI World Index has risen 5.4% in 2014.

Prospects Daily: Brazil real extends losses on turmoil in Middle East and Ukraine, U.S. durable goods orders rise more-than-expected in June, Mexico’s trade surplus declines

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Financial Markets

The U.S. dollar extended gains, rising to a fresh 8-month high against the euro on Friday as durable goods orders rose more-than-expected and a gauge of German business confidence fell more than economists’ forecast hurt by geo-political tensions. The dollar rose 0.2% to $1.3433 per euro after advancing to $1.3428 the strongest since November 21.

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