Global Economic Prospects 2015

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Prospects Daily: Moody’s cuts Russia’s credit rating, ECB starts buying Eurozone covered bonds, Russian investment falls again, confirming weak economic outlook

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Financial Markets

Portugal led a sell-off in euro area’s high-yielding government bonds on Monday amid increased recession fears.  The Portuguese 10-year bond yield soared 15 basis points (bps) to 3.46%, while the comparable Italian bond yield jumped 10 bps to 2.6%, extending last week’s rise of 17 bps.  Greek bonds declined as well, extending losses that triggered a sell-off in the periphery last week.  In contrast, safe-haven German bunds advanced, with the 10-year yield sliding 2 bps to 0.84%.

Prospects Weekly: Remittances to developing countries are on course for 5.0 percent growth this year, faster than the 3.4 percent growth recorded in 2013

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Remittances to developing countries are on course for 5.0 percent growth this year, faster than the 3.4 percent growth recorded in 2013. The acceleration is driven largely by expanding flows to Asia and Latin America. Remittances to developing countries are expected to continue climbing over the medium-term, reaching $454 billion in 2015. The cost of sending remittances is falling, but remains high along key corridors, especially to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Prospects Daily: ​Developing-country stocks and currencies tumble, U.S. jobless claims show unexpected decrease to 14-year low while industrial production surges, Turkeys’ current account deficit less than expected

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Financial Markets

Developing-country stocks and currencies tumbled on Thursday amid deepening worries over slowing global growth. The MSCI emerging market stock index slumped 1.2% with Indian shares dropping to a 2-month low, while the benchmark gauge that track 20 developing-country currencies fell 0.6% with the Russian ruble sliding to a fresh record low. Oil prices continued to decline as well with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since June 2012.

High Income Economies

Prospects Daily: U.S. Treasuries post biggest weekly gain in six months, Japan’s Leading Index rises for first time this year,Turkey’s industrial production climes 5.2% y/y in August

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Financial Markets

U.S. Treasuries slid for a fourth week as the market welcomed the dovish tone of September’s FOMC minutes. The FOMC minutes stressed risks that external demand growth and the surging dollar might curtail growth and inflation in the U.S.. The benchmark 10-year yield has declined 13 basis points this week, the most since the week ended March 14. The yield has reached 2.28% yesterday, the lowest since June last year.

Prospects Daily: U.S. Treasuries remain strong on safe-haven demand, IMF urges more government spending with world economy stuttering, South Africa’s August manufacturing down 2.1% y/y

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Financial Markets

Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries were trading at near-lowest level in 15 months as mounting concerns over slowing global growth boosted the safe-haven appeal for the U.S. government debt. The U.S. 30-year yields also reached the lowest level since May 2013 before a $13 billion auction of the 30-year securities today. European bond yields from France to Portugal fell to record lows after German exports dropped the most in August since 2009.

Prospects Daily: Global equities fall on growth concerns, OECD leading index remains unchanged in August, China services PMI edges lower in September

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Financial Markets

European and Asian stock markets slumped on Wednesday amid heightened concerns over global economic growth. Investors are reacting to more evidences of weak growth as economic data from China, Spain, and Germany seemed to support the gloomy global outlook painted by the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday. U.S. equities opened lower with the S&P 500 index falling to an eight-week low in morning trade. The benchmark MSCI world stock index slid to its lowest level since mid-April.

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