Global Economic Prospects 2014

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Prospects Daily: Developing-country stocks rise for the first time this year, Brazil’s industrial production slows

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Financial Markets… Developing-country stocks gained for the first time this year amid signs of improving global growth prospects, but Turkish stocks extended their slumps on lingering political unrest. The benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index advanced 0.3% on Wednesday, its first gain since December 31, as investor sentiment was benefiting from encouraging economic reports out of the U.S. and Europe yesterday. The gauge declined 3% in the first four trading sessions of 2014, extending a 5% loss accumulated in 2013.

Prospects Daily: Global equities remain under pressure on China concerns, US factory orders rise more than expected, Service sector growth slows in Brazil, China, and India

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Financial Markets…Lingering concerns over a slowdown in the Chinese economy prompted a third straight day of declines for global stocks on Monday, while U.S. Treasuries advanced in the wake of some mixed economic reports. The benchmark MSCI world equity index touched a three-week low following a sharp overnight sell-off in Chinese stocks. Overall declines, however, were somewhat limited as European and U.S. shares have bounced back from earlier losses.

World Bank published latest commodity prices: January 2014

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In December of 2013, energy prices climbed up by 3.2% while the non-energy commodities rose by 0.5%. Food prices were off by 0.6%, while beverages rebounded by 4%, raw materials by 1.1% and fertilizers by 1.7%. Metals also increased by 1%, while precious metals continued their declines dropping 4.3%.

Prospects Daily: Indian rupee and Thai baht lead depreciations against U.S. dollar among Emerging Asian currencies, UK house price inflation fastest since 2009, China’s non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dips in December

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Financial Markets… The Indian rupee and Thai baht led depreciations versus the dollar in Emerging Asian currencies this week as weaker economic data prompted speculation that some of the region’s largest economies are cooling. A government report showed China’s manufacturing and service sector growth slumped in December, while an industry report showed India’s manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index weakened last month. The rupee fell 0.9% from last week to 62.405 per dollar, after dropping to a 1-month low earlier today.

Prospects Daily: Global stocks start New Year on relatively weak note, U.S. manufacturing ends 2013 on a high note, Manufacturing sector growth rebounds in Brazil but slows in China, India, and Turkey

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Financial Markets… Financial Markets…Global stocks started the year on a relatively weak note amid disappointing Chinese manufacturing data with developing-country stocks leading the decline. Market valuations for global equities surged more than $9 trillion in 2013 as Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing helped the U.S. economy gain momentum and Eurozone economy rebound from its longest recession. European and U.S. stock markets fell slightly after ending 2013 on a very strong note, while emerging-market stocks drop the most in six weeks on Thursday.

Prospects Daily: S&P cuts EU credit rating, U.S. GDP growth at 2-year high, India’s leading economic index falls

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Financial Markets… Rating agency Standard & Poor’s cut its triple A credit rating of the European Union by one level on Friday, citing the deteriorating overall creditworthiness of the bloc’s 28 member nations.  S&P also said in a statement that disagreements among EU member leaders over the common budget process weighed on the downgrade.  The downgrade came after the agency stripped its AAA rating on the Netherlands last month, and today’s rating action leave just six EU member countries with a top credit rating, including Germany, Luxembourg, and F

Prospects Daily: Global stocks mixed as tapering begins,Turkey’s markets come under pressure

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Financial Markets…The path of global stocks was somewhat mixed on Thursday following the Federal Reserve’s decision to start to reduce its massive stimulus program.  Developed-country stocks rallied with Japanese and European shares posting big gains amid the Fed-inspired stock rally.  In contrast, U.S. equities opened slightly lower in morning trade session, after both the S&P 500 and the Dow reaching record highs overnight, as investors gauged a mixed set of data, including U.S.

Prospects Daily: Ukraine’s dollar bonds extend record gains, U.S. housing starts at a 5-year high, India’s central bank leaves key interest rates unchanged

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Financial Markets… Global stocks inched higher on Wednesday along with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields as investors awaited the Federal Reserve decision on the future of its stimulus program.  The benchmark MSCI world stock index gained 0.4% as Japan’s Nikkei 225 index and German’s DAX index climbed 2% and 1.5%, respectively, helped by weakening yen and robust German business sentiment.  U.S.