Global Economic Prospects 2014

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Prospects Daily: India’s stocks rally for 8th day to record high, U.S.’s Markit flash Manufacturing PMI falls in July, China’s flash Manufacturing PMI rises strongly

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Financial Markets

U.S.’s Treasuries dropped on Thursday as reports showed that U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell to an 8-year low in July. The 10-year yield rose by 4.0 basis points to 2.51% in afternoon trading in New York. The 30-year yield also rose by 4.0 basis points to 3.30% after falling to 3.24% on July 21, its lowest level since June 7, 2013. Year-to-date, Treasuries have gained 3.6%, compared to a loss of 3.4% last year.

 

Prospects Daily: European stocks advance while dollar gains on higher U.S. yields, U.S. June consumer price inflation in line with estimates, South Africa’s leading index rises slightly

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Financial Markets

European stocks rose on Tuesday, rebounding from three consecutive days of losses, amid a global rebound in risk appetite, helped by signs of reduced tensions over the downed Malaysian Airlines plane. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.3% in mid-afternoon trading in London after falling 1.5% in the past three days amid tensions over the Ukraine crisis and as intense fighting in Gaza unsettled investors.

Prospects Daily: Global stock market indexes fall amid Gaza and Ukraine concerns, U.K.’s consumer confidence falls for first time in 2014, China signs currency swap agreement with Switzerland

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Financial Markets

Major global stock market indexes fell while bond prices rallied on Monday amid worries over the Gaza strip and Ukraine. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5% to 337.95 at the close in London following a 0.8% gain last week. U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.3%, France’s CAC40 lost 0.7%, and Germany Dax fell 1.1% to its lowest level since May 9. In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 115 points, or 0.7% to below 17,000 and the S&P 500 index retreated 12 points or 0.6% in mid-afternoon.

Prospects Weekly: Growth in China was 7.5 percent in the second quarter of 2014, Weak activity in the Euro Area and strengthening growth in the US, Steady stock-to-use ratios suggest that grain markets are adequately supplied

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Second quarter growth in China was broadly stable at 7.5 percent in line with expectations, with little indication thus far of a rebalancing away from investment towards consumption. Weak activity in the Euro Area and strengthening growth in the US have led to the widest level of the long-term yield spread in fifteen years. Steady stock-to-use ratios suggest a broadly stable outlook for most grain prices.
 

Commodity Markets Outlook July 2014

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The World Bank just published the Commodity Market Outlook report for the second quarter of 2014.

Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. Yet, as tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to ease to $104/barrel in 2015 from $106/barrel in 2014.

Prospects Daily: U.K. unemployment lowest since 2008, China’s GDP growth at 7.5% in Q2

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High Income Economies

With energy prices showing a significant rebound, U.S. producer prices increased by more than expected in June. The producer price index for final demand rose by 0.4% (m/m) following a 0.2% drop in May. Economists had expected prices to increase by about 0.2%. Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices edged up by 0.2% in June after dipping by 0.1% in May.

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