Global Economic Prospects 2014

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Prospects Daily: German government bonds advance on weak factory-orders data, which recorded the worst single-month drop since 2009, Turkeys’ September inflation lower than expected

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Financial Markets

German government bonds gained on Monday as a report showed the country’s factory orders recorded the worst single-month drop since 2009, spurring worries over the slowdown of Europe’s biggest economy. German benchmark 10-year yields fell as much as 3 basis points (bps) to 0.90%. In contrast, government bonds from high-yielding European countries fell with 10-year yields on Italian, Spanish, and Greek debt all climbing.

Prospects Weekly: Russia’s economy has continued to weaken, The World Bank baseline scenario is for economic growth to remain weak, Policies should emphasize growth-enhancing measures

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Russia’s real GDP expanded 0.8 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2014, its lowest growth rate in five quarters, slowing from the first quarter’s modest 0.9 percent (y/y) expansion. An intensification of geopolitical tensions would create additional risks to growth and more subdued investment and consumption spending could see the economy flip into a protracted recession.
 

World Bank published latest commodity prices: October 2014

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In September 2014, energy prices decreased by 3.7% and the prices of non-energy commodities decreased as well by 3.4%. Food prices were down by 4.1%. Beverages dropped by 1.8%. Raw materials went slid by 3.1% while fertilizers were slightly up by 0.8%. Metals and minerals decreased by 3.4%, and precious metals by 5%.
 
To access recent and long-term historical prices and other commodity-related information, please click here.
 

Prospects Daily: U.S. Treasuries fall on strong jobs prospects, ECB leaves policy rates unchanged, Brazil’s manufacturing deteriorates in September

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Financial Markets

U.S. Treasuries fell on Thursday, giving up some of the largest gains in 8 months achieved yesterday, amid speculation tomorrow’s jobs data will show U.S. labor market is further strengthening.  The benchmark 10-year yield climbed 4 basis points (bps) from the four-week low level to 2.43%.  German government bonds declined as well, ending a six-day gain, as the ECB’s plan to buy asset-backed securities failed to convince markets it would revive the monetary union’s economy.

Prospects Daily: U.S. Treasuries rally amid concerns about slowing global growth, U.S. private sector job growth exceeds economist estimates in September, Russian manufacturing PMI expands beyond expectations

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Financial Markets

Amid weakening Asia and Europe factory activities, growing concerns that global growth is stalling, and increasing appeal for safe-haven U.S. government debt, U.S. Treasuries prices advanced the most in six weeks on Wednesday. Unexpected slowdown of U.S. manufacturing growth in September, according to an industry report, also added to concerns about faltering global growth. The benchmark 10-year note yield slid 8 basis points (bps) to 2.41%, the steepest drop since August 15.

Prospects Daily: Global equities slid on Hong Kong protests, Eurozone economic confidence falls to 10-month low, Turkey’s consumer confidence rises in September

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Financial Markets

Global stock markets retreated on Monday as civil unrest in Hong Kong SAR, China increased risk aversion among investors, while U.S. Treasuries advanced on safe-haven appeal.  The benchmark MSCI world stock index fell 0.5% in early trading, but it recovered slightly after strong U.S. economic data pushed U.S. equities higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield slid 4 basis points (bps) to 2.49% in morning trade.

Prospects Weekly: Fossil fuel subsidies on average amount to 4.3 percent, Energy subsidies are motivated by socioeconomic goals, Political economy of implementing subsidy reforms remains a challenge

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Energy subsidies in developing countries amount, on average, to 4.3 percent of GDP, with wide cross-country variation. Though intended to achieve socio-economic goals, in reality, subsidies often encourage excess consumption and benefit the poor less than the rich. Transparency and credible plans to compensate the poorest can help implement subsidy reforms.
 

Prospects Daily: U.S. stocks rebound from yesterday’s sharp sell-off, Eurozone’s leading index falls, Brazil’s producer price inflation eases in August

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Financial Markets

U.S. equities opened higher on Friday after posting their largest fall since July that wiped out $320 billion in market valuations, helped by robust corporate earnings results and stronger-than-expected GDP growth. The S&P 500 and the Down Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and 0.4% in morning trade. European shares advanced as well, bouncing back from a four-week low, while Asian and developing-country benchmark indexes extended their losses.

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