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GDP impact of oil price shock

Theo Janse van Rensburg's picture

The current turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has been associated with a $22/bbl increase in oil prices from $90/bbl in December 2010 to $112/bbl by late April 2011 (a 40% increase over the average price of $79.60/bbl in 2010).

In the World Bank’s latest baseline projections, oil prices are expected to gradually decline toward a long-run equilibrium price of about $80/bbl in constant 2011 dollar terms. This implies annual price levels of $107/bbl in 2011 drifting to $96.70/bbl by 2013.

Prospects Daily: U.S. unemployment claims up; Euro Area credit risk increases.. Trichet hints at rate hike

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Important developments today:

1. Credit risk for Greek, Irish, and Portuguese debt increases to record highs

2. U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rise in latest week

3. U.S. trade deficit narrows as oil and auto imports fall

4. Japan GDP falloff in first quarter less than first estimated


Prospects Daily: World Bank sees Global recovery facing headwinds

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture


Important develoments today:

1. World Bank releases ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report, highlighting risks to world recovery

2. China’s net purchase of Japanese long-term government debt reaches record high

3. U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke: ‘Uneven’ recovery…watch excessive budget cuts

4. OPEC: no consensus on output quotas


Prospects Weekly: Food prices in developing countries have increased less than international food prices

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
Food prices in developing countries have increased less than international food prices, partly reflecting weak pass through and partly the fact that a wider range of food commodities are consumed locally than is traded internationally.  Domestic credit growth remains strong in selected developing economies despite efforts by central banks to contain credit growth and inflation by tightening monetary policy.