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Non-energy commodity prices rose by 0.6 percent in March—a third straight monthly increase—led by gains in several food prices, but there were also declines in most metals prices and a few agriculture commodities, notably arabica coffee. Crude oil prices continued to climb on numerous production outages and expected losses of Iranian exports because of U.S./EU sanctions. Natural gas prices in Europe jumped on higher oil prices, while U.S. prices continue to plummet on weak demand and growth in shale-gas output.
 rose by 4.5 percent in March</strong> to $117.8/bbl on expected supply losses from Iran, and ongoing disruptions in a number of non-OPEC counties—notably South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen—due to various geopolitical/weather/technical issues. The U.S./EU sanctions on Iran, which come into full force in July, have already caused EU countries, Japan and other nations to reduce imports from Iran. Further curtailments are likely as buyers encounter difficulty paying for Iranian crude (U.S. rules prohibit financial institutions that deal with the U.S. from doing business with Iranian banks). Up to 1 mb/d of Iranian exports may be halted by this summer according to the IEA. Further oil price increases may be capped, however, by the impact of high prices on demand, and as the U.S., UK and France consider the release of strategic reserves. The Brent/WTI spread remains at more than $20/bbl due to rising stocks at Cushing OK and limited capacity to transport surplus oil to the U.S. Gulf.</p> <p>[{ihmprxqv.0wa}]</p> <p><strong>Agricultural prices rose by 0.9 percent in March, </strong>a third monthly gain. Increases in food prices—especially fats and oils—were partly offset by declines in beverages and raw materials. The largest gains were for soymeal and soybean prices, up 9 and 6 percent respectively, on lower than expected U.S. planting intentions, and reduced South American supplies due to dry weather. Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose 3-4 percent due to slower production in Malaysia and South America. Wheat and rice prices rose 2 percent, on tightening supplies. Arabica coffee prices posted a 10 percent decline partly due to a large Brazilian crop. Coconut oil prices fell 5 percent on weak demand in Asia and substitution toward lower-priced competing oils. Logs (Malaysia) prices fell 3 percent on the slowdown in Asian demand.</p> <p>[{fsxslma4.alr}]</p> <p><strong>Metals and minerals prices fell 0.2 percent in March</strong> with declines in most base metals, partially offset by a gain in iron ore prices. The largest decrease was for nickel, down 8 percent, on rising stocks and ongoing ramp-up of new projects that is expected to keep the market in surplus in the medium term. Tin prices fell 5 percent due to rising inventories and recovery in production from earlier weather-related disruptions in Asia. Lead prices fell 3 percent on seasonally weak battery demand and rising lead production in China. Also declining were gold and silver prices, down 4 percent, on reduced investment demand. The only notable price gain was for iron ore, up 3 percent, following the return of year-on-year growth to China’s steel production in February, and tightening seaborne ore supplies.</p> <p>[{mgwb0zxg.00o/chart-small.png)
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