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Prospects Daily: Asian stocks rally on signs of resilience in China,Turkey industrial output rises

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Financial Markets… US equities rose for a fifth day running while stocks in Asia extended their winning streak for the eight day running on Monday, on signs of resilience in the Chinese economy, and a strong upward revision to Q2 GDP growth in Japan. The Nikkei 225 Average closed up 2.2% and the Shanghai Composite climbed to three-month highs after rising 3.4 per cent%, while the S&P added 0.5% on Monday morning to last week’s 1.4% increase.
In commodities, gold extended its recent weakness to slip 0.4% to $1,386 an ounce as the prospect of US Federal Reserve tapering remained on the table, even though Friday’s disappointing US jobs report reduced expectations for an immediate shift in Fed policy.

High Income EconomiesJapanese GDP expanded faster than initially estimated, with revised numbers showing annualized growth of 3.8% (q/q saar) in Q2 versus previous estimates of 2.6%, indicating robust growth following strong expansion of 4.1% in Q1.  The upward gains were led by non-residential private investment, which rose 1.3% (q/q sa), marking the first increase in six quarters, but tapered by private residential investment which contracted 0.3% (q/q sa). 

Separately, Japan’s consumer confidence index inched down for the third successive month, dropping to 43 in August from 43.6 in July.

Greek industrial production fell sharply by 8.1% (y/y nsa) in July, after recording a 0.6% increase in June, led by a drop in output from electricity generation, mining & quarrying and manufacturing (apparel).  However, output shrank by only 0.2% (y/y) in the first seven months of the year compared to a 6.7% contraction in the same period a year earlier.

Developing EconomiesEast Asia and Pacific: Inflation eased in China in August, with both consumer and producer price inflation declining. Consumer price inflation fell to 2.6% (y/y) from 2.7% (y/y) in the previous month, remaining well below the government’s target of 3.5% for the year, on account of a decline in food price inflation, to 4.7% (from 5% y/y) in July) that helped offset the a 1.5% increase in non-food prices.   Producer price inflation fell by 1.6% (y/y), adding to the 2.3% (y/y) decline recorded the previous month. The decline in inflation was accompanied by a pick-up in exports, which rose by 7.2% (m/m) in August from 5.1% (m/m) in July, boosting further the trade surplus to US$28.6 bn from U$17.8 bn in July.

Europe and Central Asia: Turkey’s industrial production rose for a second consecutive month in July rising 4.6% (y/y, sa), helped by a 6.2 per cent growth in manufacturing and a 6.8 per cent rise in durable consumer goods.  However, the monthly reading was weaker, with industrial production decreasing 0.9% (m/m, sa) in July from 1.4% in the previous month.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Mozambique’s headline inflation edged down further in August. Consumer price inflation was recorded at 4.34% (y/y) in August, down from 4.58% (y/y) in July, remaining below the central bank’s target range of 5-6%, as rising production of vegetables and fruits kept food prices down.

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