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Prospects Daily: Japan’s exports continue to fall…Mexico’s retail sales growth accelerates

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Financial Markets…The Euribor-OIS spread, a measure of bank’s reluctance to lend to one another in Europe, fell for the sixth day to 10.4 basis points, the lowest level since August 2007. The gauge indicates the degree of stress in short-term unsecured interbank lending.

Spanish bonds declined for a second day on Monday, pushing the 10-year yield up 5 basis points to 5.42%, the largest increase in a week. Growing uncertainty about when the country may seek a bailout following a regional election victory for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy weighed negatively on the nation’s debt.

Russia’s state-owned biggest oil company, OAO Rosneft, agreed to buy a 50% stake in TNK-BP for $28 billion in cash and shares in the biggest acquisition by a Russian company. The deal also gives BP $12.3 billion in cash and a 20% stake in Rosneft.

High-income EconomiesJapan’s exports fell at the fastest pace since the aftermath of last year’s Tohoku earthquake, declining by 10.3% (y/y) in September compared to a 9.9% (y/y) fall in August, aided by the global slowdown, the yen’s strength, and a dispute with China over islands in the East China Sea. Exports to China, Japan's top export market, fell 14.1% (y/y), the biggest decline since January, while shipments to the EU dropped 21.1% (y/y). Imports rose 4.1% (y/y) as the country bought more oil and liquefied natural gas ahead of a tax increase on oil imports that began October 1.

Denmark’s retail sales rose 1.0% in September from the previous month, resulting in a slower pace of decline in year-on-year sales to -1.4% (y/y) in September from -2.4% (y/y) in August. 

Estonia's producer price inflation slowed to 2% in September (-0.2% m/m) from 2.2% in August, mainly due to a monthly fall in prices of manufactured and energy products.

Hong Kong's
consumer price inflation edged up to 3.8% (y/y) in September from 3.7% in August, mainly due to increases in public housing rentals.

Developing EconomiesMalaysia's unemployment rate declined to 2.8% in August from 3.2% in July, and compared to 3.2% in August 2011.

Mexico’s retail sales growth accelerated to 4.8% (y/y) in August from 2.6% in July reflecting broad-based consumer purchases, contributing substantially to economic growth. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 1.1% in August from July, reversing the previous 1.4% monthly decline.

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