World Bank says global growth is now projected at 2.5 and 3.1%. 
Providing information, analysis, and advice on global trends in the world economy. 
Now free. Daily and monthly updates on global economic developments and relevant topical issues. Prospects Weekly: Tentative signals of stabilization in the global economy appear to be emerging
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Some tentative signals of stabilization in the global economy appear to be emerging. Recent policy measures have helped lower the cost of insuring sovereign bonds in several troubled Euro Area economies, but large rollover requirements over the next few months could spur renewed market nervousness. Retail sales have picked up in the United States, Germany and the UK, while holding steady in a number of developing countries. This improvement in general conditions has been reflected in a firming up of industrial production growth, and business surveys suggest an uptick in activity going forward.
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| Market perceptions of credit risks have eased since late December. Credit default swap rates for Italian, Irish, and Spanish government bonds have declined by 128, 82, and 54 basis points since mid-December following policy steps in Europe and a more aggressive intervention by the European Central Bank. Italy and Spain held several successful debt auctions in January at lower borrowing costs. A further €580 billion in debt (bonds and T-bills) for Euro Area economies is due to mature in 2012, with a large tranche coming due in March and April which could spark further market nervousness. Portuguese CDS rates have bucked the downward trend in January, rising to 1,515 bps. However, the cost of insuring Portuguese bonds eased in recent days following approval of a new European fiscal pact this week.
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| Retail sales have picked up in recent months. Global retail sales volumes grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.6% in the three months ending in November 2011 (3m/3m, saar), up from a two-year low of 0.9% in July, when rising economic uncertainties and lingering Tohoku disaster effects were in play. The rise in retail sales in the United States and Germany was supported by improving labor market conditions and rising consumer confidence. However, among developing countries retail sales in Argentina and Brazil were flat. Looking ahead, consumer confidence indices have been on the rise since November in both the United States and the Euro Area - developments that bode well for sustaining retail sales growth going forward.
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| Economic activity shows signs of strengthening but recovery remains fragile. Industrial production growth has been firming for both high income countries (excluding Japan and the Euro Area) and in developing countries (excluding Thailand – due to floods), while Q4 2011 US GDP rose by 2.8% (saar). Moreover, business surveys suggest a further uptick in activity is in store following several months of depressed readings. While encouraging, the recovery remains fragile given weak import demand from Europe, and still below trend growth in large emerging economies (Brazil, China, India, Russia, Turkey,) as well ongoing uncertainty in some high-income countries.
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