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Job preservation or job creation: can’t we have it both ways?

Simon Bell's picture
Using SME lines of credit and other SME support operations for long-term development or a quick term countercyclical fix?
 
I recently attended an interesting presentation about a truly impressive credit guarantee agency, the Korean Credit Guarantee Agency (KODIT), established 40 years ago with $44 billion in outstanding guarantees and 220,000 SMEs guaranteed annually. A truly impressive institution which has opened up bank lending to more and more SMEs, which otherwise would have gone unfunded and unserved.  As one of the larger Partial Credit Guarantee (PCG) schemes in the world, the Koreans have clearly achieved remarkable results at an impressive scale.
 
The one thing that struck me most, however, was the slide reproduced below. KODIT explicitly uses a guarantee instrument on SME loans as a tool of countercyclical policy. So, when the economy enters a down turn, guarantees are more liberally applied to ensure that SMEs don’t go out of business and adversely impact the generally negative economic scenario. “Job Preservation” becomes more important than “Job Creation.” With 99% of registered firms in Korea being SMEs, and with 87% of Korean employment coming from SMEs,supporting this sector in a down turn is clearly very important.

 

Korea is not unique.  During the early days of the Great Recession in 2008, the Small Business Administration of the United States of America increased SME guarantees in the face of an economic down turn.  Since the summer of 2015, the Chinese government has begun to offer subsidized loans to SMEs to counteract the effects of the Chinese slow down. Countries such as Turkey, Ecuador, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Myanmar and Egypt are increasingly seeking World Bank support for SME lines of credit, SME guarantee programs, and other forms of SME support. Supporting SMEs is clearly a well-recognized and frequently applied tool of economic policy.
 
Yet our own World Bank guidelines stipulate that SME-support interventions are meant to help achieve longer-term developmental goals – broadening and deepening financial markets so that financial systems can ultimately take on these types of lending without the need for outside intervention. In fact, a 2014 IEG Report on “The Big Business of Small Enterprise” criticized the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, and MIGA for undertaking SME I, followed by SME II, followed by SME III, followed by SME IV, with no visible increase in the capacity of the underlying financial sector to sustain such lending on its own account, very little lengthening of the tenors of SME lending, and seemingly very little increase in the commercial banking sector’s comfort levels in dealing with a clientele which all too frequently is perceived by private lenders as being unduly risky.
 
It would actually seem, however, that SME Lines of Credit and other forms of SME support, are undertaken for several reasons but within two broad categorizations:
 
Category 1:
  • To help catalyze the market in the development of longer term financing instruments (an output, not an outcome)
  • Support employment generation (which is a prime motivation in the current global environment) or other “SME-related” objectives (such as diversification, innovation, geographic dispersion of economic activities, value chain inclusion, women’s employment, youth employment, etc)
 Category 2:
  • As a tool of countercyclical economic policy.
My strong belief is that many of the SME support operations that the World Bank is being asked to operationalize are related to putting a countercyclical policy in place in the face of an economic down turn.  Most of these governments have not “suddenly found religion” with respect to wishing to promote longer term maturities in their SME lending markets or seeking to promote greater private sector bank risk taking with growing SME portfolios.  They clearly want to have operational interventions in place as soon as possible because they face immediate economic problems.
 
It would appear that SME support mechanisms can be a  legitimate tool of countercyclical economic policy in an economic down turn. However, because speed is generally a prime pre-requisite in such an environment, these types of operations will not necessarily promote the pre-conditions for longer term market development for SME funding, an enhanced appetite for banks to lend to SMEs, or even increased support for “employment-generating” SMEs that may well be the desired target …………. and consequently, the criticism that we are not having a real lasting developmental impact.
 
Maybe the time has come start thinking about SME lending in two distinct ways: 
  • As a tool of countercyclical economic policy (much like fiscal support through a DPL, but directed at the private sector)  and
  • As a more developmental instrument (catalyzing longer term lending markets, developing instruments more attuned to “employment generating” SMEs, supporting a more robust financial infrastructure – including payments system and PCG support schemes, etc).  
Until we come to better grips with these two distinct – and equally important impacts – of SME support operations, we will continue to undervalue the short- to medium-term value of countercyclical SME lending, despite its widespread global use and its potentially hugely important economic impact.
 
 

Extending financial services to women in Bihar yields social and economic benefits

Jennifer Isern's picture


How many bank accounts do you have? One, two or more? For people in developed countries, a bank account is a fact of everyday life. A constant presence. Something that is pivotal to your home, your work and your family. But imagine if you didn’t have one. How would you be paid? How could you pay for your rent or mortgage, your food, utility bills, and so on?

Trade competitiveness in Uruguay

Gonzalo Varela's picture
For a small economy like Uruguay, integration into the global marketplace is one of the most powerful vehicles for growth and development. Participating actively in international trade allows Uruguayan firms to become more productive, by achieving economies of scale and by learning through exposure to international technologies, know-how and ideas. 

How did Uruguayan firms perform, over the last 15 years, in the global marketplace?


Using the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic Framework – which we presented today to the Uruguayan public and private sector – a World Bank team examined the performance of Uruguayan firms in global markets in terms of export growth, diversification, quality upgrading and survival;. The team presented a number of recommendations to increase integration and to gain from it.

The main findings of
the report reveal the following:

  • Exports have grown fast thanks to favorable external conditions, but also due to the dynamism of the private sector, as well as to sound trade and investment policies.
  • Tailwinds due to high commodity prices helped export growth. Exports in gross and in value-added terms expanded at double-digit rates, and they expanded even faster among primary and resource-based products. The emblematic example is that of soybean exports, which stood at US$1.5 million in 2001 and which climbed to US$1.6 billion in 2014, making Uruguay an increasingly important player in the world market with a share of 3 percent of total exports.
  • But it wasn’t just tailwinds. The private sector was dynamic enough to seize the opportunity of favorable conditions and penetrate 46 new markets between 2000 and 2013. In just one product, beef, exporters gained access to 30 new destinations, and they secured higher prices in top-quality markets on the back of smart entrepreneurship, quality upgrading and a longstanding government strategy of negotiating market access for the sector. In services, for example, modern, knowledge-intensive sectors such as ICT and other business services also grew at double-digit rates, increasing the knowledge content of the export bundle.

Are my bananas green because of market distortions or wrong policies?

Michael J. Goldberg's picture



Green bananas. Saturday morning I head to the market to buy bananas, but I find only green ones at the stand. There is no large banana importer to complain to, no government bureaucrat to sympathize with my need for ripe bananas, and certainly no banana grower to chat with. I have to make an economically rational decision (buy them green, buy them later, or don’t buy at all) and move on to the apples, where the cycle repeats. This is a market imperfection that I understand and have to live with (although it drives me bananas).

But what about when we wear another hat, that of the Bank financial sector project designer? We are used to generating investment projects that fit different market situations, regulatory systems, and political realities. Under tight time constraints, we do what an economist might do – assume there is a market imperfection and brainstorm on the most appropriate effective solution. But a true economist would want evidence of the market imperfection from statistics, recent assessments, etc.
  
So what is a financial sector specialist to do?  The first step is to understand which of the many imperfections represents the binding constraint – the one that blocks government and private sector counterparts from taking the first steps to correct a problem. This is where the economists come in.  

What’s the color of entrepreneurship?

Cecile Fruman's picture

From November 12 to 19, the World Bank Group celebrated Global Entrepreneurship Week (GEW) with a series of events focused on the role of entrepreneurship for development. More than 500 entrepreneurs, academics and practitioners gathered from all over the world to discuss one key question: What does entrepreneurship look like in developing countries?
 
After listening to experts presenting their research and entrepreneurs discussing their inspiring stories, I believe the question has multiple answers. Like the GEW logo — a multicolor compass — entrepreneurship is a spectrum that embraces different realities, from social enterprises and community-led businesses to young startups and multinational firms. 



So what’s the color of entrepreneurship?
 
To aspiring entrepreneurs around Cape Town, South Africa, entrepreneurship probably looks red. Red like the logo of the local RLab, a center founded in 2008 by Marlon Parker — a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader and an alumnus of President Obama's Young African Leaders initiative — to empower local communities through impact investing and social enterprise incubation.
 
Opening the Global Entrepreneurship Forum, Marlon talked about his mission to build “economies of hope.” In his welcoming incubation space, painted in a warm red, unemployed people, students and dropouts can experiment with new technologies, connect with mentors and participate in training programs to learn everything they need to launch a local business. His model incubates new enterprises within the community, with the community and for the community. Marlon has even introduced a local “reward currency”: a credit that can be earned only by doing good actions within the community and that, like real cash, can be spent at the Rlab and in participating stores.
 
But what conditions enable local businesses to reach regional or even global scale? This question was the focus of “From Start-ups to Scale-ups: the Realities of Growth Entrepreneurship,” a seminar organized by the World Bank Group in partnership with the Brookings Institution and the Global Entrepreneurship Research Network. 

SMEs finance leapfrogs through fintech innovations

Gloria M. Grandolini's picture



Since more than 50% of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) worldwide lack adequate access to credit, the international community is proposing reforms that will help countries strengthen their financial infrastructure and make it easier for SMEs to borrow funds needed to operate and expand.

The War is Over. What Do We Do Now? Post-Conflict Recovery of the Private Sector in South Sudan

Steve Utterwulghe's picture


The White Nile in South Sudan. Photo by Steve Utterwulghe.

As I was landing in Juba, the bustling capital of South Sudan, I couldn’t help but reminisce about my days working in Khartoum for the UN Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General. The war between the North and the South, of what was then, in 2004, still the Sudan, was raging as the peace negotiations were taking place in a plush resort on the shores of Lake Naivasha in Kenya. I was mainly focusing on guaranteeing access to the people of the Nuba Mountains, one of the three fiercely contested areas between Khartoum and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/SPLA). I was doing my fair share of shuttle diplomacy, going back and forth between the SPLM/SPLA leadership based in Nairobi and the Government of Sudan in Khartoum. At that time, hopes were high that one would soon see the end of decades of a bloody war in Africa’s largest country. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement was finally signed in 2005. In 2011, South Sudanese participated in a referendum and 99 percent voted for independence. South Sudan became the newest country in the world.
 
But what should have been a new era of peace and prosperity quickly turned into a feeling of dejà vu. Dreams were shattered as a new internal violent conflict broke out in December 2013, putting the progress achieved at significant risk and disrupting economic activities and livelihoods.
 
The country is very rich in natural resources, including oil, minerals and fertile arable land. However, with 90 percent of its population earning less than US$1 per day, South Sudan is ranked as one of the poorest countries on the planet. South Sudan remains an undeveloped economy facing important challenges, including high unemployment, weak institutions, illiteracy and political instability. The economic overview of the country by the World Bank suggests that “South Sudan is the most oil-dependent country in the world, with oil accounting for almost the totality of exports, and around 60 percent of its gross domestic product.” The conflict has dramatically affected the production of oil, which has fallen by about 20 percent and is now at about 165,000 barrels per day. This, combined with the sharp global drop in oil prices, has greatly affected the fiscal position of the government.

In such an environment, private sector development is a must, since it has the potential to create market-led jobs and growth. However, private sector growth requires a conducive investment climate and an enabling business environment.
 
South Sudan has made progress in this area, thanks in part to support from the international community, including the World Bank Group. Yet more needs to be done. South Sudan ranks 187th out of the 189 economies in the Doing Business ranking, just ahead of Libya and Eritrea. In addition, among the top constraints reported by firms in the World Bank Group's Enterprise Survey, 68 percent mention political instability and 58 percent cite access to electricity, followed closely by access to land and finance. 

Tangier, Morocco: Success on the Strait of Gibraltar

Z. Joe Kulenovic's picture
 
 Z. Joe Kulenovic
Modern factories, seaport terminals, and technical schools, plus priceless cultural monuments: Tangier, Morocco

In late 2014, the World Bank’s Competitive Cities team visited the Moroccan city of Tangier, to carry out a case study of how a city in the Middle East & North Africa Region managed to achieve stellar economic growth and create jobs for its rising population, especially given that it is not endowed with oil or natural gas reserves like many others in the region.
 
In just over a decade, this ancient port city went from dormant to dominant. Between 2005 and 2012, for example, Tangier created new jobs three times as fast as Morocco as a whole (employment growth averaged 2.7% and 0.9% per year, respectively), while also outpacing national GDP growth by about a tenth. Today, the city and its surrounding region of Tanger-Tétouan is a booming commercial gateway and manufacturing hub, with one of Africa’s largest seaports and automotive factories, producing some 400,000 vehicles per year (with Moroccan-made content at approximately 35-40%, and a target to increase that share to 60% in the next few years). The metropolitan area now boasts multiple free trade zones and industrial parks, while also thriving as a tourist destination. As in our previous city case studies, we wanted to know what (and who) drove this transformation, and how exactly it was achieved.

Foreign direct investment and development: Insights from literature and ideas for research

Christine Qiang's picture
 The Leeds Library by Flickr user Michael D Beckwith


For many decades, academia and policy making has debated about the role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in development. Such question has been very difficult to elucidate, not only because the discussion has being colored by many ideological dogmas, but also because the very fundamental characteristics of cross border investment have evolved over time. Indeed, over the last five decades, the paradigm of FDI has changed significantly. Traditionally FDI has been visualized as a flow of capital, flowing from “North” to “South” by big multinational enterprises (MNEs) from industrial countries investing in developing countries, traditionally aiming to exploit natural resources in the latter or to substitute trade as a means to serve domestic consumption markets. Such paradigm has changed significantly.
 
Today, FDI is not only about capital, but also --and more important-- about technology and know-how, it no longer flows from “North” to “South”, but also from  “South” to “South” and from “South” to “North”. Further, FDI is no longer a substitute of trade, but quite the opposite. Today FDI has become part of the process of international production, by which investors locate in one country to produce a good or a service that is part of a broader global value chain (GVC). Investors then, have become traders and vice-versa. Moreover, FDI is now not only carried out by only big MNEs, but also from relatively smaller firms from developing countries that are investing in countries beyond their home countries. Last but not least, cross-border investment is no longer only about portfolio investment and FDI. International patterns of production are leading to new forms of cross-border investment, in which foreign investors share their intangible assets such as know-how or brands in conjunction with local capital or tangible assets of domestic investors. This is the case of non-equity modes of investment (NEMs) –such as franchises, outsourcing, management contracts, contract farming or manufacturing.

How 3 banks in emerging economies are banking women

Rebecca Ruf's picture




Photo: GBA Stock Image

As a global community, we’ve made great strides toward achieving the World Bank Group’s goal of universal financial inclusion by 2020. According to the Global Findex, 700 million people gained access to formal financial services between 2011 and 2014. This is equivalent to nearly the entire population of Europe. But the latest numbers from the Global Findex also revealed a startling fact: The gender gap in financial inclusion remains stubbornly intact, with women in emerging economies 20% less likely to have a bank account than men and 17% less likely to have borrowed formally. 

Women who lack access to financial services face a number of related obstacles, including lower income and business growth, lower asset ownership – making it harder to borrow – and lower levels of financial capability. These factors, combined with increasing financial responsibility for their households, make enabling women to fully benefit from financial services an important development objective. Recognizing that commercial banks can and must play a vital role in closing the financial access gender gap, the Global Banking Alliance for Women (GBA) made a commitment in April 2015 with a subset of its members – Banco BHD León of the Dominican Republic, Banco Pichincha of Ecuador and Diamond Bank Plc of Nigeria – to provide financial access to 1.8 million previously unbanked women in Latin America and Africa by 2020. 

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