There are the booming megacities such as Tokyo, Mumbai, and Nairobi. Then there are cities that are declining in population, such as Detroit.
In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where we recently conducted a study on urban growth trends, we found unique demographic patterns affecting the urbanization process in the region.
For example, the region has had fertility rates below replacement levels for more than two decades, and most countries in the region have negative net migration rates.
This signifies that the population of most countries in the region is either growing very slowly or declining, and in some countries urban population has started to decline.
What does this mean for cities?
Resulting from this competition, we find that most of the cities in the region are shrinking while population growth is increasingly concentrated in a few cities. Per our estimates, 61% of the region’s cities shrank between 2000 and 2010, losing on average 11% of their population.
This scale of city population decline is unprecedented.