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Does political risk deter FDI from emerging markets?

Laura Gómez-Mera's picture

Investors touring a factory in Canada. Source - Province of British Columbia“Ask anyone you meet on the street whether political risk has risen in the last few years, and you’d likely get a convincing yes,” a high official from Canada’s Export Development Center recently wrote.
 
Investors have always worried about the political landscape in host markets. But it’s true. Concerns over political risk are on the rise.
 
The most recent EIU’s Global Business Barometer shows that the proportion of executives that identified political risk as one of their main concerns increased from 36 percent in 2013 to 42 percent in 2014. MIGA’s Political Risk Survey tells a similar story: 20 percent of investors identified political risk as the most important constraint on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in developing economies. Indeed, according to risk management firm AON, political risk is now tenth on the list of main risks facing organizations today and is likely to rise in the ranking in the next few years.
 
With FDI from emerging markets also on the rise, are the concerns of these investors any different?

Picture Trade: How to be a wiz at WITS trade data visualizations

Siddhesh Kaushik's picture

Ever needed to know exactly how much a country exports or imports of a product? How about which trade partners are most important to a country? Or how those relationships and patterns of trade have changed over time?
 
There is now an easy way to get this picture using the WITS Country Analysis Trade Data Visualization tool. Here's how it works. In the visualization below, select a country, a year, whether you want trade flow data for imports or exports, and whether you want to view the data by partner country or by product.

Below these options is a slider, which shows the number of partners/products in the data set. You can adjust this slider to focus on any range of numbers. Say, for example, you are interested in only the top 10 partners, then you can set the slider from 1-10 to view only the top 10-- or slide it in the other direction to see the smallest trade partners. Happy exploring, and post your comments if you find something interesting!

 

WITS Country Analysis Trade Data Visualization


You can explore this and more advanced visualizations in the WITS Trade Visualizations page. To see how these visualizations can help tell stories in more interesting ways, check out our recent blog on fuel prices that uses the Product Analysis visualization.

Towards an integrated market for seeds and fertilizers in West Africa

John Keyser's picture

Source - World Bank.West African countries have been working for many years to develop and implement harmonized trade rules for crop inputs. While much remains to be done, new regional regulations for seed and fertilizer are already helping to guide quality improvements in some countries. The West Africa Seed Committee is due to be launched next week in Abidjan thereby clearing the way for establishment of a regional variety catalog and seed certification system. Work to operationalize the regional rules for fertilizer also continues.

Despite these positive developments, most West African countries are a long way from having the required capacities and institutional structures needed to implement their own trade rules. The agreed regulations are modeled on advanced international standards, yet most national regulatory systems for crop inputs are greatly overstretched if they exist at all. As a result, it will likely be many more years before true harmonized regional trade can begin.

A new World Bank Group Africa Trade Working Paper looks at these challenges and shows that simple solutions including unilateral and joint action by small groups of countries should not be ruled out as a way to fast-track progress and support long-term harmonization.

Waiting on a waiver - what the WTO's new services initiative could mean for LDCs

Marcus Bartley Johns's picture

Workers sort, repack, and ship goods in Al Obaied Crop Market, North Kordofan, Sudan. Source - Salahaldeen Nadir/World BankThe World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) has been getting a great deal of attention since it was finalized at the 2013 Bali Ministerial Conference– and rightly so. As we’ve written before on this blog, trade facilitation is a powerful driver of increased competitiveness and trade performance in developing countries.
 
But last month, the spotlight at the WTO was on another important decision from Bali—how to maximize the impact of a waiver to support exports of services from Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

At a meeting on February 5, around 30 WTO Members, covering most major export markets for LDCs, set out in concrete terms what preferences they could provide. The preferences cover a wide range of services and modes of supply, as well as regulatory issues that LDCs have identified in a “collective request” to other WTO Members. 

ECOWAS, CET, and EPA – let’s take the debate to where the action is

Erik von Uexkull's picture

Road near Zaria, Nigeria. Source - pjotter05The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is making some real progress in regional integration. After decade-long negotiations, it has just launched its own Common External Tariff (CET), and now a final proposal for an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union is also on the table.

However, vast differences in opinion remain regarding the likely effects of these reforms. In Nigeria—a key player in the region— debate is currently lively as to whether the country should sign the EPA, with some local stakeholders wary of the proposed reduction in trade protection.

Noting these concerns, the World Bank Group recently shed more light on the anatomy of these trade shocks. By analyzing detailed trade and firm data in a simple short-term framework, we were able to pick up details that are important determinants of how the reforms might play out—even in the longer run. The full reports can be found here, along with a non-technical policy note.

So what did we find?

On the cusp of modernity: the Lao private sector at a crossroads

Amir Fouad's picture

A worker at a construction site in Lao PDR.For older generations of Lao citizens, the streets of Vientiane must be nothing short of unrecognizable. Over the past fifteen years, Lao PDR and its capital have enjoyed strong economic growth on the heels of a natural resources boom and closer regional integration. The result has been an undeniable if only gradual trend toward modernity for a country once completely shielded off from the outside world. With some of the world’s fastest growing economies right in its backyard, Lao PDR has benefited significantly from external demand for tradable goods and services and increased foreign direct investment inflows. Cooperation and coordination with development partners has intensified, leading to progressive efforts to reform and increase openness. What’s more, strong growth in real GDP (averaging over 7 percent throughout the two decades to 2014) has been accompanied by a reduction in poverty from 46 percent of the population in the early nineties to 23 percent in 2013.

Picture Trade: What countries could be hurt by the oil price plunge?

Julia Oliver's picture

Falling oil prices means trouble for oil exporters. Find out who they are in this data exploration by our colleague on the Open Data team, Siddhesh Kaushik: "Which countries could be affected by plunging oil prices: a data perspective."

Below is a taste of the blog post -- a visualization that can also be found on the Trade Data Visualization section of the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) website.

Countries heavily affected by oil prices

WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement: It’s Been Worth the Wait

Marcus Bartley Johns's picture

WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo launches intensive consultations on taking the Bali package forward in Sept. 2014. Photo - WTO/Flickr.​World Trade Organization Director-General Roberto Azevêdo opened the November 27 WTO General Council meeting with a bit of tongue-in-cheek humor: “It seems we liked Bali so much we wanted to do it all over again!” he said.
 
It was an important moment–WTO Members had decided to move forward with implementing the landmark Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) and other elements of the deal agreed at the December 2013 Ministerial Conference in Bali. Although it might have felt like a trip back in time for Azevêdo and others, the good news is that WTO Members, with the support of the World Bank Group and other partners, have now made significant progress toward implementing the TFA.

Picture Trade: Getting Richer, Trading More

Jose Daniel Reyes's picture
Openness to Merchandise Trade and GDP per Capita (Average 2010-2012)

A well-established correlation in trade economics is the connection between gross domestic product (GDP) and openness to trade: as countries become wealthier, they tend to trade more as a percentage of their gross domestic product (GDP). The correlation is complex and not fully understood. As the authors of the World Bank’s Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic put it: “This relationship runs in both directions: the richer countries become the more they tend to trade; more importantly, countries that are most open to trade grow richer more quickly.”

Transit is Still Important to Landlocked Developing Countries

Karlygash Dairabayeva's picture

Bus crossing a steppe full of red poppies in Kazakhstan. Photo - Kubat Sydykov / World BankComing from a landlocked country myself (Kazakhstan), I was fascinated to participate in the 2nd UN Conference on landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) held in Austria this past November. Representatives of 32 LLDCS and many other neighboring transit countries gathered to review progress of the Almaty Program of Action (APoA) over the last decade, and to discuss further ways to help countries overcome the downsides of being landlocked.

LLDCs, by definition, lack direct access to the sea and are therefore marginalized from major transportation and services networks. This means that any product these countries try to import or export relies on transit through another country. LLDCs experience much higher costs of trade than their transit neighbours, reducing their ability to trade. LLDCs constitute a mere 1 percent share of world trade, while the transit coastal countries account for roughly 24 percent. The majority of citizens in LLDCs falls into a category that has been coined the “bottom billion” in terms of average real GDP per capita.

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