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Monthly World Bank Updates on Economic Developments in Russia Now Available

Birgit Hansl's picture
Also available in: Русский

Since our most recent Russia Economic Report (RER) just four months ago, the World Bank revised its 2013 growth outlook for Russia – down from 3.3 percent to 2.3 percent. This downward revision in May represents a decline in our projections by 1.0 percentage point compared with March, and 1.3 percentage points compared with October 2012.

At the time of our May forecast revision, we decided to issue a more frequent World Bank macroeconomic monitoring note for Russia in addition to the semi-annual RER. The Russia Monthly Economic Developments provides:

  • an overview of key global economic developments over the recent month in a few short paragraphs and figures;
  • a discussion of the most current indicators for Russia on the real, fiscal, external, monetary, and financial sectors, as well as labor market developments; and
  • reports on any changes in the World Bank’s growth outlook for Russia.

We hope the World Bank’s new Russia Monthly Economic Developments will complement other institutions’ assessments by providing an impartial reflection on the current economic situation in Russia.

The latest Russia Monthly Economic Developments will be posted around the 5th of each month on the World Bank’s Russia country webpage.

Comments

Submitted by Farid on

How can you explain, that Russia is now a high-income country? There are so many poor people, official monthly income is about 800 dollars and inflation is 3-4 times higher then officially stated.

Dear Farid – thank you for your comment. The Russian Federation has been indeed re-classified as a high income country in the most recent country classification of the World Bank as of July 1, 2013. The country classification of the World Bank is based on estimates of gross national income (GNI) per capita for the previous year (2012). The world’s economies are classified as low income, lower middle income, upper middle income or high income. These estimates are reviewed each year on July 1. The classification is used for analytical purposes only and is not the basis for resource allocation decisions – see also the latest blog of our Research Group Director Shaida Badiee at http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/reviewing-world-bank-s-analytical-country-classification-updat

Submitted by Farid on

one more question: why a 4 month period adjust The World Bank's expertize by 1/3? some minor adjustments are understandable, but from 3 to 2 % is too much, isn't it?

Our growth projections are based on quarterly data. Q1 growth was only 1.6 (official data) and we expect indeed a recovery in Q2 (2.3 percent) and Q3 (2.5 percent) to Q4 (2.6 percent). Our quarterly growth (y-o-y), implies that growth will recover to around 1.4 percent (quarter to previous quarter, seasonally adjusted) which is quite ambitious. But if we would have assumed growth of 2.8 percent for 2013, this would require growth to average about 3.5 percent during the second half of 2013 and about 2.0 percent (quarter to previous quarter, seasonally adjusted) which to us appears unrealistic given the current trends in industrial production, investment and retail trade.

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