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Our growth projections are based on quarterly data. Q1 growth was only 1.6 (official data) and we expect indeed a recovery in Q2 (2.3 percent) and Q3 (2.5 percent) to Q4 (2.6 percent). Our quarterly growth (y-o-y), implies that growth will recover to around 1.4 percent (quarter to previous quarter, seasonally adjusted) which is quite ambitious. But if we would have assumed growth of 2.8 percent for 2013, this would require growth to average about 3.5 percent during the second half of 2013 and about 2.0 percent (quarter to previous quarter, seasonally adjusted) which to us appears unrealistic given the current trends in industrial production, investment and retail trade.

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