Very thoughtful and timely blog.
It seems that dark clouds are gathering for many commodity dependent countries and very worthwhile to explore the less rosy scenarios.
Would be interesting to understand how precisely the "downturn" in China has affected South Africa, given that China's commodity imports continued to increase (by 9% in 2015). The effect is certainly present, but seemingly through a more indirect mechanism (financial markets, capital investments etc.).
Or is it that South Africa has lost market share to other commodity exporting countries?