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February 2006

Mapping the global future

Mapping the Global Future' is the latest unclassified report from the US National Intelligence Council. This forward-looking scenario based report focuses on the contradictions of globalization, the impact of the rise of China and India, and new security risks. More on specific topics below the fold.

‘The Global Agenda’

Significant progress has been made in advancing the global development agenda [in 2005]. Now donor countries must move beyond commitments to developing concrete plans that make effective use of aid – plans that deliver results for the poor. For their part, developing countries must continue their efforts to build transparent and accountable institutions that promote growth and respond to the needs of the poor… Both rich and poor countries will have to think about how to make effective use of the additional aid that has been promised.

Dear Bono…

I am afraid that your energies have been misdirected when they are used to advance an aid agenda that is based on two obsolete and counter- productive premises: first, that aid for Africa must be spent in Africa rather than outside it and, second, that we must work to increase aid flows to a target of 0.7 per cent of gross national product…

Who are China’s entrepreneurs?

Controlling for institutional environment, entrepreneurs in China are much more likely to have family members who are entrepreneurs as well as childhood friends who became entrepreneurs, suggesting that social environment plays an important role in entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs also differ strongly from non-entrepreneurs in their attitudes toward risks and their work-leisure preferences, echoing Schumpeter.