Ylan Mui writes in the Washington Post about 'Why the World Shouldn't Fear the Taper,' which draws from Global Economic Prospects (GEP), launched earlier this week.
The Economist has a daily chart drawing from the GEP that illustrates output gaps in developing countries.
David Roodman has a new paper titled 'Armageddon or Adolescence? Making Sense of Microfinance's Recent Travails.'
- weekly round up
The global economy is finally emerging from the financial crisis. Worldwide, growth came in at an estimated 2.4 percent in 2013, and is expected to rise to 3.2 percent this year. This improvement is due in no small part to better performance by high-income countries. Advanced economies are expected to record 1.3 percent growth for the year just finished, and then expand by 2.2 percent in 2014. Meanwhile, developing countries will likely grow by 5.3 percent this year, an increase from estimated growth of 4.8 percent in 2013.
The world economy can be seen as a two-engine plane that was flying for close to six years on one engine: the developing world. Finally, another engine – high-income countries – has gone from stalled to shifting into gear. This turnaround, detailed in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2014 launched last Tuesday, means that developing countries no longer serve as the main engine driving the world economy. While the boom days of the mid-2000s may have passed, growth in the emerging world remains well above historical averages.
High-income countries continue to face significant challenges, but the outlook has brightened. Several advanced economies still have large deficits, but a number of them have adopted long-term strategies to bring them under control without choking off growth.
- Is China’s GDP larger than the World Bank’s PPP estimate says? A new paper in the Economic Journal argues it is 15% larger due to urban price bias.
- The Economist covers work by Jishnu Das and Quy-Toan Do on the overemphasis of top journals on the U.S. and the lack of economic research on many countries
Migrant workers sent $6.77 billion home to Bangladesh in July-December, down 8.41% from the same time a year ago. For the first time in recent memory, Bangladesh has experienced a decline in remittances in the first half of the fiscal year.
There are four factors that can potentially account for the decline in remittances: the stock of Bangladeshi migrants abroad, earnings per migrant worker, their average propensity to save, and their average propensity to remit money home out of those savings.
In response to a recent EduTech blog post on “the 'ideal’ educational technology devices for developing countries”, I received numerous responses that effectively said: “We already know what this ideal device is: the mobile phone”. While the use of mobile phones in education is a regular topic explored on this blog, and the mobile phone is a device that I regularly recommend that ministries of education consider when planning for technology use in schools more than they currently do (in my experience few education authorities do consider utilizing phones as tools for learning in any real way), I would not go so far as to say that it is the ‘ideal’ device for use in educational settings in developing countries. Context is always king.
It may be true that, in many cases, the ‘best device is the one you already have, know how to use and can afford’. In some contexts, mobile phones conform to this definition quite well (although many school systems around the world do continue to ban or severely limit their use on school property). Depending on the context and usage scenario, others do too, including the two that I used to compose the first draft of this blog post: a ballpoint pen and a notepad (the old fashioned kind with actual paper, not the one that comes bundled with Microsoft Windows).
Because I often prominently highlight the potential of mobile phones to be used in educational contexts in developing countries in the course of my work at the World Bank, I am often asked for specific examples of this use. Here’s a rather interesting one that you may not have heard much about:
For those of you who are not interested in soccer and for our young colleagues who are growing up with Messi and Ronaldo: Johan Cruijff was the best soccer player ever. At least according to his Dutch fans; skeptics can convince themselves here. As a player and coach he has won every conceivable prize for club teams, but he has become even more famous as an analyst. His judgments are so inscrutable for mere earthlings that his utterings are considered without exception as deep philosophical wisdoms. One of his more transparent quotes might give you already an impression: Soccer is simple, but it is difficult to play simple soccer. There must be deep insight also in Italians can't win the game against you, but you can lose the game against the Italians. People have collected over the years many more examples, but I want to discuss one of his more recent observations.
Qatari labor law prohibits recruitment agents from charging migrant workers “any sums representing recruitment fees or expenses or any other costs.” Most high-skilled migrant workers do not pay recruitment fees, but many low-skilled migrant workers do. A Sri Lankan paid $1,092 to get a job in Qatar, and a Bangladeshi paid $3,651 for a construction job, of which wage can be some $200-300 per month, according to Human Right Watch (2012).
One can say that perhaps such payments are inevitable given that supply is far greater than demand in the world’s low-skilled labor market. Every year millions of workers leave one country to work in another, including almost 2.5 million Asian workers (excluding China). The wage gap that enables a worker to earn more in an hour abroad than what she could earn in a day at home motivates international labor migration, raising the question of how the wage gap of 6 to 1 or more should be shared among workers, employers, recruiters and governments.
More than 10,000 people from around the world have already signed up for the World Bank Group’s first MOOC (Massive Online Open Course) on climate change, an initiative that appears to be tapping into a younger-than-usual audience than our e-courses usually get.
We’ve been excited to see this participant data because we know that for the world to effectively be able to address climate change, young people must be well-informed and engaged. We’re also pleased that most people who registered so far come from developing nations – and that many are joining an e-course for the first time.
The MOOC course, titled Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, is based on a recent research report with the same name that the Bank commissioned from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The course kicks off Monday, January 27, and will be delivered on an online platform hosted by Coursera, an education company that partners with top universities and organizations to offer courses for free.