Let me explain why the World Bank is optimistic for Moldova.
Reason for optimism number 1. On the edge of the largest market in the world - the European Union - and with labour costs a tiny fraction of the EU average, Moldova could be a magnet for investment for the European consumer. Moldova's Free Economic Zones show how attractive the country can be to foreign investors when businesses are protected from corruption and hassles. The day that Moldovans get a clean economy, therefore, they will see explosive growth in such areas as light manufacturing, for example, and with that will come higher demand for labour and better wages. And faster economic growth will mean more money to pay for decent education, health care and pensions.
Reason for optimism number 2. Moldova has already weathered the worst of the economic shock caused by Russia's economic downturn and the 2015 drought. After a 2 percent decline in 2015, we predict that GDP growth will resume slowly in 2016 to 0.5 percent and accelerate to 4 percent in 2017.
Yes, of course one should not be delusional. 2015 was a tough year for the economy. There is no other word to describe a recession, a drought and a massive bank fraud for which generations of Moldovans will bear the burden. The bank fraud takes part of the blame for the fall of the leu, high interest rates and rising prices. World Bank employees are supposed to be guided by economics, not by emotions, but I cannot help feeling outrage that the ordinary Ion or Ioana will have to pay for the authorities' tolerance of fraud in the three banks.
But prosperity is within Moldova's reach. So, for 2016 let’s do the following...