With 2015 firmly behind us, it’s time to reflect on the past year’s global economic trends -- while looking forward at the challenges and opportunities facing countries around the world. Check out the articles below for diverse and thought-provoking perspectives on how public-private partnerships can play a constructive role in global economies throughout 2016 and beyond.
Imagine record commitments in transport that are 26% higher than the next best year since the inception of the Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Database in 1990. That’s exactly what took place in 2014—massive private participation in transport that culminated in the fourth highest level of global investment (transport, energy, and water) ever recorded. Indeed, the PPI Database’s 2014 Global Update released in June, 2015, shows that total investment in transport hit a record high of US$36.5 billion, driven by a handful of outsized deals in
Latin America and, more specifically, Brazil—including a mega airport project totaling US$10 billion. Meanwhile, energy fell 19 percent year-over-year due to fewer commitments in five out of six regions, while water grew 14 percent, driven by key deals in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. In a separate report, Telecom showed modest year-over-year declines, extending a trend of fewer projects and lower investment over the past five years.
Named by Peruvian fishermen because of its tendency to appear around Christmastime, El Niño is the planet’s most large-scale and recurring mode of climate variability. Every 2-7 years, a slackening of trade winds that push sun-warmed water across the Pacific contributes to a rise in water temperature across large parts of the ocean. As the heat rises, a global pattern of weather changes ensues, triggering heat waves in many tropical regions and extreme drought or rainfall in others.
The fact that we are undergoing a major El Niño event should cause major concern and requires mobilization now. Already, eight provinces in the Philippines are in a state of emergency due to drought; rice farmers in Vietnam and Thailand have left fields unplanted due to weak rains; and 42,000 people have been displaced by floods in Somalia.
And this is before the event reaches its peak. Meteorologists see a 95% chance of the El Niño lasting into 2016, with its most extreme effects arriving between now and March. Coastal regions of Latin America are braced for major floods; India is dealing with a 14% deficit in the recent monsoon rains; and poor rainfalls could add to insecurity in several of Africa’s fragile states. Indeed, Berkeley Professor Soloman Hsiang has used historical data to demonstrate that the likelihood of new conflict outbreaks in tropical regions doubles from 3% to 6% in an El Niño year.
But despite its thousand-year history, the devastation associated with El Niño is not inevitable. Progress made by many other countries since the last major event, in 1997-98, shows that we can get a grip on its effect – and others caused by climate trends.
- weather risks
- Disaster Repsonse
- disaster relief
- disaster recovery
- disaster prevention
- disaster preparedness
- Disaster management
- Sustainable Communities
- Public Sector and Governance
- Agriculture and Rural Development
- Climate Change
- The World Region
As countries prepare to meet at the G20 summit in Turkey next week, global growth and infrastructure needs will be at the top of decision makers’ concerns. And rightly so: Infrastructure – roads, bridges, ports, power plants, water supply – drive economic growth in many countries by facilitating manufacturing, services and trade. But it’s not just a matter of building more. To achieve good development on a planet stressed by climate change and diminishing natural resources, infrastructure needs to be sustainable.
‘Oh you’re going to Lima? I’ve heard the food is supposed to be amazing’. So goes the typical comment I get from friends and family when I would mention my work related travel plans. And in this sense the city does indeed live up to what is now internationally recognized. In my short amount of time in Lima I discovered it has a gorgeous historic downtown area, a stunning coastline peppered with manicured parks in the upscale parts of town, and a largely flat topography coupled with a near complete lack of rain.
Tensions were high at the international Board meeting of Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in Berne, Switzerland. EITI Board members, 20 in all, including civil society representatives, investors, managers of multinational corporations, and implementing and supporting country officials, debated stridently for two days on issues like how EITI implementing countries are judged on whether they have met the requirements of the “Standard” set by the EITI. As my first EITI Board meeting, I was surprised to find such divergent views on operational issues when we clearly all agree on the end goal: increasing transparency in the extractive industries to decrease the space for corruption and enhance the development impact of revenues from the sector.
In 2013, EITI raised the bar of transparency with the introduction of a new Standard that requires more detailed reporting on extractive company and state owned enterprise payments, government receipts and a broader range of contextual information on the sector in EITI implementing countries. The first batch of reports produced under the Standard arrived between late 2014 and early 2015. Many EITI countries have so far struggled to meet the enhanced requirements of the Standard and concerns have been raised about how they will be assessed when they undergo the validation process (the quality assurance process that leads to the judgement of compliance with the EITI Standard).
This week I was invited to speak at The Economist’s Higher Education Forum in New York to share my thoughts on how higher education can be expanded. I believe that we need a fair and sustainable cost-recovery model at the university level using future earnings to finance current education.
Over the past two decades, there has been a tremendous increase in the number of university students and graduates worldwide, which should have led to decrease in the rate of return to investment to higher education – if supply outpaced demand, of course. While there has been some decrease in overall rates of return, investment in education is still a highly profitable investment. Global demand for high levels skills such as working with new information and problem-solving has kept the returns to schooling high in even the poorest countries of the world. In fact, the returns to higher education are higher in lower-income countries – except in the Middle East and North Africa due to rigid labor market regulations.
Looking into the horizon from the 27th floor of the new tower of the National Bank while attending the World Bank’s Annual Meetings, the sight is partially clouded by a haze that typically lasts 9 months each year. I daydream and imagine I am still riding my bike somewhere down there, among farms and streams while exploring old Inca ruins.
As reality returns, all I can see are roads, buildings, and traffic congestion for miles without end. The Lima of my childhood is gone, having been replaced by a megalopolis of 12 million people, 5 times larger than in the 1960s. Its innocence is nowhere to be found, and today Lima is like any large city, overwhelmingly vast, contaminated, and chaotic. Yet at the same time it has retained the enchantment that made it the capital of the new world in the 1600s, earning it the name “the Pearl of the Pacific” as the seat of the rich Viceroyalty that made Spain the most powerful Empire in the world. Lima today is sophisticated and vibrant. The delegates attending the Bank meetings were treated to an amazing array of tradition and modernity, and enjoyed a delightful display of culture and gastronomy that keeps Lima as a destination in its own right. Lima boasts the best restaurant in the Americas, and 3 among the top 10 in the world. Its art and cultural scenes today are exceptional.
Back at the Banco de la Nación, it is hard to believe that this tower was not there just 18 months ago. It was built for the meetings using an ultra-modern “self-climbing” crane technology, together with the most technologically advanced Convention Center in Latin America. The impeccable organization of the Annual Meetings is a tribute to the capacity of this country to rise to the most difficult challenges, as well as to the hard work of our Bank colleagues that supported these efforts.