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Central banks

Low oil prices and monetary policy in developing countries: Mind the gap!

Ayhan Kose's picture
Excluding a handful of oil exporters or countries where sharply depreciating currencies or domestic factors caused inflation to soar, developing country inflation has fallen quite significantly over the past few months and is expected this year to be at its lowest level since 2009 (Figure 1). The broad-based pattern of slowing inflation has been largely driven by plunging oil prices, albeit to varying degrees reflecting in particular exchange rate developments, the extent of fuel subsidies and other price regulations.

When Financial Crises Attacks

11am on a Tuesday


Since 2009, the World Bank has been conducting financial crisis simulation exercises and learning valuable lessons on where institutional vulnerabilities lie. These exercises are intended to test, or simply to practice, the use of existing or proposed legal instruments, interagency and/or cross-border agreements, and other crisis management arrangements. More than 20 exercises in all world regions have been executed so far, focusing either on the interaction among top national authorities (typically between the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, the Bank and non-bank Supervisors, and the Deposit Insurance Agency), or on the interaction among bank supervisors of different national jurisdictions dealing with cross-border issues.

Prospects Daily: US treasuries gained and the benchmark 10-year bond yield edged down

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
Photo Credit: Mabruk Kabir / World Bank

Fatima brimmed with optimism. The 19-year-old recently established a poultry enterprise with the support of a micro-grant, and was thrilled at the prospect of financial independence.

“After my family moved from Pakistan, I had few options for work,” she said from her home in the Paghman district in the outskirts of Kabul. “The grant not only allowed me to start my own poultry business, but let me work from my own home.”

With over half the population under the age of 15, Afghanistan stands on the cusp of a demographic dividend. To reach their full potential, Afghanistan’s youth need to be engaged in meaningful work – enabling young people to support themselves, but also contribute to the prosperity of their families and communities.

Prospects Daily: European stocks slipped on Friday with the benchmark index falling to a three-week low

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World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva giving opening remarks at a high-level anti-corruption event at the Spring meetings.
World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva giving opening remarks at a high-level anti-corruption event at the 2018 Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group. Photo: World Bank

We have to fight corruption by making sure it doesn’t happen in the first place and use technology to give every citizen a voice in this effort, said World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva in her opening remarks at a high-level event last Wednesday where leaders from government, the private sector, civil society, media, and academia discussed how to catalyze innovation to end corruption.

During a lively discussion, Thuli Madonsela, an Advocate of the High Court of South Africa, emphasized that public officials must have a track record of the highest standard and integrity. Peter Solmssen, Former General Counsel of Siemens AG, and AIG encouraged building trust that can lead to embracing the private sector as a potential partner.

Prospects Weekly: Latest bout of G3 monetary stimulus is likely to increase capital flows to developing countries

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

English settlers to the New World believed that the climate of Newfoundland would be moderate, New England would be warm, and Virginia would be like southern Spain. These beliefs were based on the seemingly common sense view that climate is much the same at any given latitude around the globe.
 
What is striking is that these views persisted despite mounting evidence to the contrary. As late as 1620, after 13 years in the settlement, residents in Jamestown, Virginia, were still trying to import olive trees and other tropical plants, perhaps inspired by Father Andrew White, who had assured them that it was “probable that the soil will prove to be adapted to all the fruits of Italy, figs, pomegranates, oranges, olives, etc.” Eventually, the English settlers did adjust their mental models about North American climate. The accumulation of scientific data, combined with personal experience, was undeniable. But the adjustment was slow and costly, in terms of both money and lives lost.

Prospects Daily: Japanese Yen strengthens as the country’s current account turns to surplus again

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
Vista del Metropolitano de noche. Lima. Perú.

When you think of Peru, the first city that usually comes to mind is Lima. Why? Well, because Lima is the largest city in the country, with close to 50% of the nation’s urban population living in the metropolitan area; the city also produces 45% of Peru’s GDP. While this level of concentration of population and economic activity may not be a good or bad thing, it points to some imbalances in the urban system in Peru. 

Prospects Daily: European sovereign credit risk rises to eight-week high

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Just ask the investors: businesses in emerging markets can no longer afford to ignore the risks posed by the changing climate to their bottom lines. Ranging from increasingly frequent and severe weather events to new regulations and changing consumer preferences, climate change is fundamentally transforming the way we do business. Increasingly, companies and their investors are seeking opportunities to transition to and invest in climate-smart portfolios.

What central banks say about monitoring and regulating remittance markets

Dilip Ratha's picture

The limited availability of data on poverty and inequality poses major challenges to the monitoring of the World Bank Group’s twin goals – ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. According to a recently completed study, for nearly one hundred countries at most two poverty estimates are available over the past decade.Worse still, for around half of them there was either one or no poverty estimate available.* Increasing the frequency of data on poverty is critical to effectively monitoring the Bank’s twin goals.
 
Against this background, the science of “Big Data” is often looked to as providing a potential solution. A famous example of this science is “Google Flu Trends (GFT)”, which uses search outcomes of Google to predict flu outbreaks. This technology has proven extremely quick to produce predictions and is also very cost-effective. The rapidly increasing volumes of raw data and the accompanying  improvement of computer science have enabled us to fill other kinds of data gaps in ways that we could not even have dreamt of  in the past.