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Commodities

Energy prices fell 6 percent in June — Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture

Energy commodity prices declined 6 percent in June, led by a 7.5 percent plunge in oil, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet said.

Agriculture prices dropped nearly 2 percent, with most groups easing, including food and beverages (down 1 percent each) and raw materials (off 3.5 percent). Fertilizer prices gained 2 percent.

Metals and mineral prices slid 1 percent, led by an 8 percent tumble in iron ore prices. Precious metals prices increased 1 percent.

The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.

Energy prices fell in May, led by oil, coal – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices declined 4 percent in May, led by a 4.3 percent drop in oil and an 11.7 plunge in coal, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet said. Natural gas prices rose 1.6 percent.

Food prices increased 2.4 percent, following gains in key grains (rice and wheat) and edible oils. Beverage prices eased 1 percent due to weak coffee prices. Fertilizer prices receded nearly 6 percent.

Metals and minerals prices slid 2.4 percent, led by an 11 percent tumble in iron ore. Precious metals were off 2.6 percent.  It was the third monthly decline for metals.

The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
 
Commodity Prices

Global Economic Prospects in 10 Charts: June 2017

Ayhan Kose's picture
Also available in: Chinese

The World Bank forecasts that global economic growth will strengthen to 2.7 percent in 2017 as a pickup in manufacturing and trade, rising market confidence, and stabilizing commodity prices allow growth to resume in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies.  Growth in advanced economies is expected to accelerate to 1.9 percent in 2017, a benefit to their trading partners. Amid favorable global financing conditions and stabilizing commodity prices, growth in emerging market and developing economies as a whole will pick up to 4.1 percent this year from 3.5 percent in 2016. Nevertheless, substantial risks cloud the outlook. These include the possibility of greater trade restriction, uncertainty about trade, fiscal and monetary policy, and, over the longer term, persistently weak productivity and investment growth.

Download the June 2017 Global Economic Prospects report.
 
Global growth is projected to strengthen to 2.7 percent in 2017, as expected. Emerging market and developing economies are anticipated to grow 4.1 percent – faster than advanced economies.
 
Global Growth

The global commodities outlook in nine charts

John Baffes's picture
Prices for most industrial commodities, notably energy and metals, continued on a strengthening trajectory in the first quarter of 2017 while agriculture prices remained on a steady path. Those trends – rising energy and metals prices, stable ag prices – are expected to continue through 2017. 
 
Commodity Price Indices, Monthly

Energy prices rose almost 3 percent in April: Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture

Energy commodity prices rose 2.7 percent in April as the crude oil average rose 2.5 percent, according to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet.

Non-energy prices declined 2.4 percent as agriculture fell 1.4 percent, food and beverages prices dipped by 2.1 percent and 1 percent, respectively, and raw materials rose 0.3 percent. Fertilizer prices declined 6 percent.

Metals and minerals prices slid 4.3 percent, led by an almost 20 percent tumble in iron ore. Precious metals eased 2.7 percent.

The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.

Energy, metals commodity prices seen strengthening

John Baffes's picture

Prices for most industrial commodities, notably energy and metals, are projected to rise in 2017 while agricultural prices are expected to remain stable, the World Bank says in its April 2017 Commodity Markets Outlook.

Closely watched crude oil prices are forecast to rise to an average of $55 per barrel (bbl) over 2017 from $43/bbl in 2016, climbing to $60/bbl next year. The forecast is unchanged since October and reflects the balancing effects of production cuts agreed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers on one side and a faster-than-expected rebound in the U.S. shale oil industry on the other. World oil demand is growing strongly, although at a slower pace than the 2015 spike triggered by lower oil prices.

Industrial commodities prices to surge in 2017

John Baffes's picture
Prices for industrial commodities such as energy and metals appear to have bottomed out last year and are forecast to post strong gains in 2017.

Tightening supply and strengthening demand are behind this rebound in prices, which had been in steady decline since 2011, according to the January 2017 Commodity Markets Outlook.

Chart: Commodity Prices Projected to Increase in 2017

Tariq Khokhar's picture

Energy and non-energy commodity price indexes are projected to increase by 26 and 3 percent respectively in 2017. The Agricultural Price Index is expected to remain stable. Prices for industrial commodities such as energy and metals appear to have bottomed out in 2016, and are forecast to rise substantially this year due to strong demand and tight supplies. Read more in Commodity Markets Outlook.
 

Prices seen rising for oil and other commodities in 2017

John Baffes's picture

Prices for most commodities, including oil, are forecast to rise in 2017 as a long period of declining prices appears to be bottoming out, according to the October Commodities Markets Outlook.

Oil prices are forecast to rise to $55 per barrel next year from $43 per barrel in 2016 as markets readjust after an era of abundant supply that outpaced demand. Energy prices, which also include coal and natural gas, are forecast to jump 24 percent in the coming year. The decision in September of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to resume limiting oil production is another important factor behind the higher price forecast.

Was the resource boom more akin to a resource curse for Africa?

Sudharshan Canagarajah's picture

The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook (REO – April 2016) notes that the region’s dependence on primary commodities has increased since the 1980s with nearly half of the countries in the region subject to commodity price fluctuations. These economies, which contribute 70 percent of the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa are facing a sharp slowdown in real growth, with many also having to undertake large fiscal retrenchments and/or seek balance of payments support from the IMF.

We review the economic performance of Sub-Saharan Africa’s (henceforth Africa) non-renewable resource producers since the early 2000s, the start of the commodity price boom contrasting this with the economic performance of Africa’s non-commodity exporters over the same period. The negative economic impact of the current slump in commodity prices is indisputable, but it is worth asking whether Africa’s non-renewable resource producers realized any tangible benefits from the commodity price boom. Our conclusion is that they did not, at least in terms of real per capita growth. And here’s why.


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