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commodity price forecasts

2016 Oil price forecast revised higher after supply disruptions boost prices in second quarter

John Baffes's picture

The World Bank is raising its crude oil price forecast for 2016 to $43 a barrel from $41 dollars after a 37 percent jump in energy prices in the second quarter due principally to disruptions to supply, particularly from wildfires in northwestern Canada and sabotage of oil infrastructure in Nigeria.

Improved market sentiment and a weakening dollar buoy commodity price indexes

John Baffes's picture

Most commodity price indexes rebounded in February-March from their January lows on improved market sentiment and a weakening dollar. Still, average prices for the first quarter fell compared to the last quarter of 2015, with energy prices down 21 percent and non-energy prices lower by 2 percent according to the April 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook.

Commodity Markets Outlook - January 2014

John Baffes's picture
 
The World Bank just published its January 2014 Commodity Outlook. With the exception of energy, all the key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013. Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from 2012, followed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent), agriculture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent).