I just realized that what is called "Keynesian stimulus" works differently when the government is starting off a situation of deficit. The math would produce different results, which makes me wonder why economists cannot spot it (I inject more perturbations and see massive fragility). In one case, to make an analogy to an individual, you can invest money you have on the side(assuming you've had suspluses [sic] from the past). In the other, you fragilize yourself by borrowing, and transfer the liabilities cross-generations.
Last month Jaana Remes, a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute, came to the World Bank to discuss the findings of a new report called How to Compete and Grow: A Sector Guide to Policy. Remes spoke on a topic that has not been a traditional strong suit of the Bank, viz. competitiveness policies for particular sectors of the economy.
Each new jobs report in the U.S. reignites the debate about whether the government is succeeding in stemming job losses and doing enough to help stimulate the creation of new jobs.
The U.S. has been far from alone in pursuing active labor market policies during the crisis. In a new note, David Robalino and I take stock of what labor market interventions countries have put in place during the recent crisis and summarize what we know about their effectiveness to date, as well as discuss the emerging issues countries are facing as they adapt these policies to a recovery period.
That was the advice George Soros had for U.S. regulators at the conclusion of a keynote he gave last week as part of the Tenth Annual International Seminar on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector.
For the data fans out there, the World Bank's annual Little Data Book on Private Sector Development 2010 is now available for purchase via InfoShop
On May 25 we invited Professor Charles Calomiris of Columbia University to come speak at the World Bank as part of our FPD Chief Economist Talk series. Professor Calomiris discussed the on-going process of regulatory reform, particularly in the U.S., and was, to put it mildly, less than sanguine about the legislation that is currently making its way through the U.S. Congress. Watch a video of his talk (below the jump). The talk itself runs about 46 minutes, and a Q&A session follows.
That's my main takeaway from just-released data based on surveys of over 1,800 firms in eastern Europe. In mid-July 2009, firms in six countries were asked whether they had seen an increase, decrease, or no change in sales from the previous year. The numbers then were not pretty—75% of firms reported a decrease in sales (based on an average of country-level data).
On May 2 this year, Lloyd Blankfein, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, the gigantic Wall Street bank, was interviewed on CNN by Fareed Zakaria (his show is Global Public Square). Towards the end of the interview, Blankfein set up a striking distinction between the two publics of Goldman Sachs, as he saw them, and the ethical standards relevant to each public. The exchange is worth quoting in full:
ZAKARIA: We're back with the CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein. And finally, when George W. Bush tried to persuade Hank Paulson to become secretary of Treasury, as you know, he tried a couple of times and finally, he got Paulson to agree. It was a great coup to have gotten the chairman of Goldman Sachs, the most storied name in finance, to come to his administration and now, here you are with a very different reputation, particularly in the public's eyes. Do you think you can right, do you think that a few years from now, this will all have passed and Goldman Sachs will still be regarded with the same kind of awe and admiration it was or is that world over?