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Financial Sector

On risk and black swans in developing countries

Carlos Végh's picture

In 2014, the World Bank issued a highly relevant and timely report titled Risk and Opportunity:  Managing Risk for Development. This report analyzed the growing number of heterogenous risks and opportunities affecting developing countries.  A clear challenge in finding a consistent risk management strategy stems from the sharp differences in the risks faced by developing countries; for example, commodity price shocks, financial crises, and natural disasters have all different defining characteristics.  While we could tailor risk management strategies to each one of these types of risks, not having the benefit of a unifying framework can lead to mistakes and mismanagement of the scarce resources available to developing nations to deal with these potentially disastrous events.  Five years after the publication of the report, in a time of growing macroeconomic headwinds for emerging markets and higher exposure to natural disasters, understanding the risks faced by these economies and how to effectively manage them continues to be a key policy challenge.

South Asia: A bright spot in darkening economic skies?

Hartwig Schafer's picture
South Asia is set to remain relatively insulated from some of the rising uncertainties that are looming large on the global economic horizon. The region will retain its top spot as the world’s fastest-growing region. The Siddhirganj Power Project in Bangladesh. Credit: Ismail Ferdous/World Bank

If, like me, you’re a firm believer in New Year’s resolutions, early January ushers in the prospect of renewed energy and exciting opportunities. And as tradition has it, it’s also a time to enter the prediction game.
 
Sadly, when it comes to the global economy, this year’s outlook is taking a somber turn.
 
In the aptly titled Darkening Skies, the World Bank’s new edition of its twice-a-year Global Economic Prospects report shows that risks are looming large on the economic horizon.
 
To sum up:  In emerging market and developing economies, the lingering effects of recent financial market stress on several large economies, a further deceleration in commodity exporters are likely to stall growth at a weaker-than-expected 4.2 percent this year.
 
On a positive note, South Asia is set to remain relatively insulated from some of these rising global uncertainties and will retain its top spot as the world’s fastest-growing region.
 
Bucking the global decelerating trend, growth in South Asia is expected to accelerate to 7.1 percent in 2019 from 6.9 percent in the year just ended, bolstered in part by stronger investments and robust consumption.  

Among the region’s largest economies, India is forecast to grow at 7.5 percent in fiscal year 2019-20 while Bangladesh is expected to moderate to 7 percent in fiscal year 2018-19. Sri Lanka is seen speeding up slightly to 4 percent in 2019.
 
Notably, and despite increasing conflicts and growing fragility, Afghanistan is expected to increase its growth to  2.7 percent rate this year.

In this otherwise positive outlook, Pakistan’s growth is projected to slow to 3.7 percent in fiscal year 2018-19 as the country is tightening its financial conditions to help counter rising inflation and external vulnerabilities.

However, activity is projected to rebound and average 4.6 percent over the medium term.

What have we learned this year? The latest in research from the Africa Chief Economist’s Office

David Evans's picture



In the Africa Chief Economist’s Office, we seek to generate knowledge on key development issues around the continent. We also host the Gender Innovation Lab, which – as the name suggests – specifically generates evidence on how to close the gender gap in Africa. Over the course of 2018, we’ve produced a range of products (regional reports and updates), but we also produce academic articles and book chapters seeking to answer key, specific development questions.

The voice of investors – a new Investor Forum

Helen Martin's picture
From left to right: World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim; Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; Neeti Bhalla, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer for Liberty Mutual Insurance Group; Brian Moynihan, CEO, Bank of America and Hiromichi Mizuno, Executive Managing Director, Government Pension Investment Fund Japan (GPIF). Photo: © World Bank
From left to right: World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim; Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; Neeti Bhalla, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer for Liberty Mutual Insurance Group; Brian Moynihan, CEO, Bank of America and Hiromichi Mizuno, Executive Managing Director, Government Pension Investment Fund Japan (GPIF). Photo: © World Bank

Institutional investors increasingly hold the world’s purse strings, with a growing share of private savings. What will it take for financiers to allocate more of that capital in ways that align with development goals—in the long-term investments, particularly in infrastructure, that are needed to help lift more people out of poverty and boost shared prosperity?
 
To answer that question, the World Bank Group and the Government of Argentina convened the first ever Investor Forum on the eve of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires. The Investor Forum brought together investors holding over $20 trillion dollars of assets, finance experts, government representatives, and development partners for a frank and practical conversation.

Breaking down the barriers to mobilizing sustainable investment

Ceyla Pazarbasioglu's picture
Closing Plenary of the Investor Forum. © World Bank

“Private capital is often an important source of sustainable finance. Public finance alone may not be sufficient to meet the demands for sustainable finance as the global economy continues to grow and poses increasing burdens on our resources and ecosystems. Mobilizing private investment in areas such as sustainable infrastructure, sustainable technologies and business model innovations, among others, can deliver substantive environmental, social, and economic benefits.”

This summary from the G20’s Sustainable Finance Synthesis Report was at the heart of the discussion at the Investor Forum, which was held on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires in November. The event – hosted by the World Bank and the Government of Argentina – brought together investors holding over $20 trillion of assets as well as stakeholders and representatives from G20 governments. The goal was to identify steps for boosting long-term, sustainable, private-sector investments that tackle development challenges and promote economic growth in parts of the world that need it most.

Shining a light on asset-disclosure practices at the International Anti-Corruption Conference

Laura Pop's picture



In October, hundreds of representatives of civil society organizations, public and private sector representatives, journalists and international organizations gathered in Copenhagen for the 18th International Anti-Corruption Conference. This annual conference is viewed by many as a leading forum in the field of anti-corruption.

Fighting tax evasion: notes from the International Anti-Corruption Conference

Anders Hjorth Agerskov's picture



The irony was hard to miss.

Last month, leaders from the public and private sectors, civil society, international organizations, academia, and the media met at the International Anti-Corruption Conference (IACC) in Copenhagen.

FinTech Adoption and its Spillovers. Guest post by Sean Higgins

Development Impact Guest Blogger's picture
During my last trip to Mexico, I bought tamales from a street vendor and paid by card—something that would have been impossible not long ago. The vendor, who had a Bluetooth card reader connected to his cell phone, told me that his potential customers are not always carrying cash, and as a result, accepting card payments has increased his sales. This anecdote illustrates a broader trend: as the adoption of financial technologies (FinTech) increases on both the supply and demand sides of the market (see Figure 1), both consumers and small retail firms benefit.

The ongoing impact of ‘nudging’ people to pay their taxes

Oscar Calvo-González's picture
© Maria Fleischmann/World Bank
© Maria Fleischmann/World Bank

Sustainability is the holy grail of development. There are many interventions that yield positive results in the short term but somehow fail to be sustained over time. This is why the experience in Guatemala that we are about to describe is worth paying attention to. In short, it shows that behavioral insights can lead to lasting change.

It all began in 2012 in the United Kingdom, with simple changes in the reminder letters sent to taxpayers that were late in their income tax payment. The changes were very successful, inducing payments of 4.9 million pounds (around $6.5 million) in a sample of almost 120,000 delinquent taxpayers, which would not have been raised without the intervention. The then-nascent institution called the "Behavioral Insights Team" (BIT) became known around the world with this effective and very low-cost intervention that was based on modifying the messages of the letters sent to delinquent taxpayers. The message that was most effective said: "Nine out of ten people in the U.K. pay their taxes on time. You are currently in the very small minority of people who have not paid us yet." Behavioral science experts have been able to show that telling people what most people do, especially when it comes to positive behavior, is a good technique to change behavior.

How can the Czech Republic activate its business angels market?

Anwar Aridi's picture

everything possible/Shutterstock.com
Tech startups and business angels are not what comes to mind when thinking of the Czech Republic (CR). Instead, this small central European country is known for its beer, scenic bridges crossing the Vltava river, and existential writers. Not so easy to add “vibrant entrepreneurial hub” to the list as it celebrates the 100th anniversary of Czechoslovakia. Nevertheless, that's exactly what the CR policymakers intend to do. 

CR has what it takes to be an entrepreneurial hub for Central Europe


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