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Global Economy

Impacts on Global Trade and Income of Current Trade Disputes

Caroline Freund's picture

Much has been written on the escalation of the trade dispute. What hasn’t been discussed is what will be the impact on developing nations who rely on trade as an engine of economic growth for ending poverty.  

As tariffs are beginning to be imposed, my team analyzed the impact of these new tariffs and the potential for tariff escalation in developing countries in a new World Bank working document. We found that the new trade tariffs will depress bilateral trade, disrupt global supply chains, and increase demand for substitutes from developing countries.  
 

Photo Source: Avigator Fortuner, Shutterstock

Exposure of Belt & Road Economies to China Trade Shocks

Paulo Bastos's picture
The Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative seeks to deepen regional integration by improving infrastructure and strengthening trade and investment linkages along the old Silk Road, from China to Europe. With several infrastructure projects already ongoing, the initiative is expected to progressively reduce trade costs over the coming decades, and hence generate long-run economic gains for B&R economies.
 
Photo: Rob Beechey / World Bank

How to boost female employment in South Asia

Martin Rama's picture
What's driving female employment in South Asia to decrease


South Asia is booming. In 2018, GDP growth for the region as a whole is expected to accelerate to 6.9 percent, making it the fastest growing region in the world. However, fast GDP growth has not translated into fast employment growth. In fact, employment rates have declined across the region, with women accounting for most of this decline.

Between 2005 and 2015, female employment rates declined by 5 percent per year in India, 3 percent per year in Bhutan, and 1 percent per year in Sri Lanka. While it is not surprising for female employment rates to decline with economic growth and then increase, in what is commonly known as the U-shaped female labor force function (a term coined by Claudia Goldin in 1995), the trends observed in South Asia stand out. Not only has female employment declined much more than could have been anticipated, it is likely to decline further as countries such as India continue to grow and urbanize.

The unusual trend for female employment rates in South Asia is clear from Figure 1. While male employment rates in South Asia are in line with those of other countries at the same income level, female employment rates are well below.
From the South Asia Economic Focus
Source: South Asia Economic Focus (Spring 2018).

If women are choosing to exit the labor force as family incomes rise, should policymakers worry? There are at least three reasons why the drop in female employment rates may have important social costs. First, household choices may not necessarily match women’s preferences. Those preferences reflect the influence of ideas and norms about what is women’s work and men’s work as well as other gendered notions such as the idea that women should take care of the children and housework. Second, when women control a greater share of household incomes, children are healthier and do better in school. Third, when women work for pay, they have a greater voice in their households, in their communities, and in society. The economic gains from women participating equally in the labor market are sizable: A recent study estimated that the overall gain in GDP to South Asia from closing gender gaps in employment and entrepreneurship would be close to 25 percent.

Automation and innovation: Forces shaping the future of work

Simeon Djankov's picture

IT’S robots that mostly come to mind when you ask people about the future of work. Robots taking our jobs, to be specific. And it’s a reaction that’s two centuries old, in a replay of Lancashire weavers attacking looms and stocking frames at the start of the first Industrial Revolution. A secondary reaction, among a much smaller group, is the creation of new jobs in the coming fourth Industrial Revolution.

Professor Ed Glaeser at Harvard neatly summarizes this dichotomy in one figure:


 

Unlocking Competitiveness: Why Invest in Rural Vietnam?

Christine Qiang's picture
For investors seeking opportunities in Vietnam, the rural province of Dong Thap may not be the first location that comes to mind. Located in the southwest corner of Vietnam, Dong Thap is remote – the nearest airport is a three-hour drive. Road infrastructure is relatively poor, and until recently was complicated by deficient bridges over the Mekong River. It was also known for delayed customs processes that could disrupt supply chains.
 

Why Do Foreign Investors’ Attitudes toward Women Matter?

Heba Shams's picture
Gender equality is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) that calls for ensuring women’s full participation in political, economic and public life as a target. Gender inequality is still a key development issue. The World Economic Forum’s Gender Gap Report 2017 found a gender gap of 42% when it came to labor force participation and earned income. Unrealized Potential, a May 2018 publication of the World Bank Group, puts a staggering figure to the cost of this inequality in earnings - $160.2 trillion globally, or $23,620 per capita.
Kuralay Aitzhanova, Dispatcher Manager at the Energy Transmission Control Center of KEGOK. Kazakhstan. Photo: Shynar Jetpissova / World Bank

Stories of success: We-Fi’s Women Entrepreneurs Reporting Award

Priya Basu's picture
 
Amanda Burrell, Documentary Filmmaker. © World Bank
Amanda Burrell, documentary filmmaker, receiving the award. © 2018 One World Media Awards


Jordan’s Water Wise Women initiative puts women at the heart of efforts to combat severe challenges in water supply and sanitation by training more than 300 local women to be plumbers.  The program, led by the German government, led to the formation of a women’s cooperative that bids for commercial contracts in schools, mosques, and government agencies.
 
A short documentary film produced for Al Jazeera showcases how these women are not only challenging stereotypes by thriving in the male-dominated profession of plumbing, but also implementing a range of water management techniques for their communities.
 
Each group of Water Wise Women is trained to eradicate water leakage and improve hygiene.  Trained women receive toolboxes and funding for outreach to disseminate information within their community and reach at least 20-25 other women.
 
The film was just awarded the Women Entrepreneurs Journalism Award, sponsored by the Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative (We-Fi), as part of the 2018 One World Media Awards. This is the first time that the One World Media Awards have included reporting on women’s entrepreneurship as a category. The award covers broadcast, digital, film or print journalism that explores women’s entrepreneurship in developing countries. Reporting can showcase stories of successful female entrepreneurs, the challenges women face in trying to start or grow their businesses, and/or the critical role that women entrepreneurs play in economic development by boosting growth and creating jobs. 

Applications open for third round of funding for collaborative data innovation projects

World Bank Data Team's picture
Photo Credit: The Crowd and The Cloud


The Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data and the World Bank Development Data Group are pleased to announce that applications are now open for a third round of support for innovative collaborations for data production, dissemination, and use. This follows two previous rounds of funding awarded in 2017 and earlier in 2018.

This initiative is supported by the World Bank’s Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB) with financing from the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID), the Government of Korea and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Ireland.

Scaling local data and synergies with official statistics

The themes for this year’s call for proposals are scaling local data for impact, which aims to target innovations that have an established proof of concept which benefits local decision-making, and fostering synergies between the communities of non-official data and official statistics, which looks for collaborations that take advantage of the relative strengths and responsibilities of official (i.e. governmental) and non-official (e.g.,private sector, civil society, social enterprises and academia) actors in the data ecosystem.

Helping Bhutan’s parliamentarians better understand economics

Yoichiro Ishihara's picture
Bhutanese Council Members and World Bank Staff
Bhutan's newly elected council members with World Bank staff. 

Members of parliament are valuable partners for the World Bank. They enact laws, shape and review development policies, and hold governments accountable for World Bank-financed programs. This applies for the landlocked Himalayan kingdom of  Bhutan. The role of its parliament has been increasing since the country’s successful transition from monarchy to constitutional monarchy in 2008. Through its engagement with these elected representatives, the World Bank effectively integrates citizen voice in its programs to achieve lasting and inclusive development results.
 
A joint workshop between the World Bank and National Council of Bhutan, the upper house, was a great opportunity for the World Bank to engage with the 25 newly elected National Council members.

De-risking and remittances: the myth of the “underlying transaction” debunked

Marco Nicoli's picture
Also available in: Español | Français
Societé Genérale Mauritanie bank branch in Nouakchott, Mauritania.
Societé Genérale Mauritanie bank branch in Nouakchott, Mauritania. ©️ Arne Hoel

This Saturday, June 16, we celebrate International Day of Family Remittances to recognize “the significant financial contribution migrant workers make to the wellbeing of their families back home and to the sustainable development of their countries of origin.”

Which is why it is the perfect time to talk about a trend facing remittance service providers who migrants rely on to transfer their money across borders and back home.
In recent years, the international remittance services industry has been subject to the so-called “de-risking” phenomenon. Banks believe that anti-money laundering and counter financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regulations and enforcement practices have made serving money transfer operators (MTOs) too risky from a legal and reputational perspective. For banks, the profit of serving MTOs is not considered sufficient to justify the level of effort required to manage these increased risks.
 


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