Syndicate content

Trade

The Middle East and North Africa cannot miss the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Ferid Belhaj's picture

The traditional route of industrialization for developing countries may no longer be available for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This should not be a source of regret, as the aspirations of the region’s young and well-educated population extend far beyond auto assembly lines. Furthermore, the repetitive work of an assembly line will increasingly be performed by machines rather than people. The rapid pace of technological change that is propelling this process, dubbed the "Fourth Industrial Revolution," offers new opportunities for developing countries. Opportunities the MENA region cannot afford to miss. 

How are trade tensions affecting developing countries?

Caroline Freund's picture
The trade war between China and the United States is hurting consumers and producers in both countries.  As two recent papers show, US consumers are facing significantly higher prices as a result of the tariffs. In addition, producers are losing foreign sales as demand for the targeted goods declines.  
 

How can countries better manage investment risks along the BRI?

Trang Tran's picture
Investors want to ensure that their investment will be subject to predictable and stable rules and are well-protected from arbitrary government conduct. One fundamental set of tools that governments often use is to provide explicit protection for investments through investment treaties and laws.

Applauding the women leaders in South Asia

Hartwig Schafer's picture

I just ended my first round of country visits as the World Bank’s Vice President for the South Asia Region.  Over and above all, I have been immensely impressed by the resilience, determination, commitment and innovation of the women leaders that I had the privilege to meet during my visits.

These women are succeeding in a region where it is hard for women to realize their career dreams. In South Asia, only 28 percent of women ages 15+ are employed, compared to 48 percent worldwide.

What better opportunity than International Women’s Day to give a huge shout-out and applaud those women who are role models, entrepreneurs, and leaders in the eight countries of South Asia.

Neha Sharma, the district magistrate in Baghai village and Hart Schafer in India
Baghai village in Firozabad district, Uttar Pradesh, India. Photo: World Bank

Commodity prices rose modestly in February–Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture

Energy commodity prices increased nearly 5 percent in February, led by oil (+8 percent), the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices gained 2 percent, in response to large price increases in metals and minerals.

Agricultural prices changed little, as increases in food and raw material prices (+0.5 percent each) were balanced by declines in beverages (-1.3 percent).

Fertilizer prices declined more than 2 percent, led by an 8 percent slide in DAP.

We want to hear from you about the World Development Report 2020 — Global Value Chains: Trading for Development

Pinelopi Goldberg's picture

Last month I announced that the 2020 World Development Report (WDR2020) will focus on global value chains (GVCs) and what they mean for development. Does participating in GVCs promote development? Why are some low-income developing countries reaping the benefits and others not? What can countries do to gain from trade and GVCs, particularly when new technologies are bringing change and the global status quo is in a state of flux? You can read my recent blog post for a summary of the Report’s objectives or read the Concept Note directly.
 

In India, more exports can create better jobs and higher wages

Hartwig Schafer's picture
Exports to Jobs: Boosting the Gains from Trade in South Asia


South Asia has grown strongly to reduce poverty and create jobs, but the region remains a development paradox. Despite strong growth, job creation remains weak and is often of poor quality.

This is especially true for India, which grew at a rate of 7.2 percent in 2017 and which managed to reduce the number of poor people considerably.

But the growth of new job opportunities is below what many had hoped for; most Indians still lack a regular job in the formal economy, and huge differences in pay exist among workers. Strong population growth also puts pressure on labor markets, with millions of Indians entering the job market every year.

Employment creation is failing to keep up with labor force growth. And those who work often do so only in the informal sector, which is larger than in any other region in the world. Some groups, like women or workers in rural areas, are at particularly high risk of having to work in the informal economy, where wages are often lower.

Meanwhile, trade in goods as a share of the economy is much lower than in other regions. The trends in India and much of South Asia differ from other regions, where trade, growth, and jobs are directly connected and go hand in hand.

This South Asian paradox raises the question of how governments can boost job growth, and how to raise the quality of new jobs so that economic development brings more shared prosperity.

A new report by the World Bank and the International Labour Organization (ILO) finds that increasing exports through globalization has the potential to contribute to a broader strategy for promoting growth, job creation and shared prosperity.

Expand exports to resolve the South Asian paradox

Hartwig Schafer's picture
South Asia has grown strongly to reduce poverty and create jobs, but the region remains a development paradox


South Asia has grown strongly to reduce poverty and create jobs, but the region remains a development paradox: Despite strong growth job creation remains weak and is often of poor quality.

Sri Lanka grew at an average rate of 5.8 percent from 2010-2017 but the growth of new job opportunities is below what many had hoped for. Most Sri Lankans still lack a regular job in the formal economy, and huge differences in pay among workers exist.

Meanwhile, trade in goods as a share of the economy is much lower than in other regions. The trends in Sri Lanka and much of South Asia differ from other regions, where trade, growth and jobs are directly connected and go hand in hand. This South Asian paradox raises the question of how governments can boost job growth, and how to raise the quality of new jobs so that economic development brings more shared prosperity.

A new report by the World Bank and the International Labour Organization (ILO) finds that increasing exports has the potential to contribute to a broader strategy for promoting growth, job creation and shared prosperity.

Titled “Exports to Jobs: Realizing the Gains from Trade,” the report shows how higher exports can translate into benefits for workers across the country, and it therefore recommends policies to expand exports together with policies that help sharing these benefits more widely, for example through measures that help workers get the skills needed to compete for new formal-sector jobs.

How South Asia can become a free trade area

Sanjay Kathuria's picture
Women knit handicrafts for export at Everest Fashion Fair Craft in Lalitpur, Nepal
Women knit handicrafts for export at Everest Fashion Fair Craft in Lalitpur, Nepal. Photo: Peter Kapuscinski / World Bank

The South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement has been in effect since 2006—with little success.

This is in sharp contrast to the ASEAN free trade area (AFTA), which started in 1992 with six six countries and later added more members, completing the ASEAN ten by 1999.

Between 1992 and 2017, intraregional imports as a share of global imports in ASEAN increased from 17 to 24 percent, and exports from 21 to 27 percent.

In South Asia, these shares were largely stagnant since SAFTA came into effect, at 3 percent for intraregional imports and 6-7 percent for intraregional exports.

In fact, intraregional trade in South Asia has been the lowest among world regions for quite some time, hovering around 5 percent of its overall trade with the world.

What’s keeping India in the dark?

Fan Zhang's picture
To boost and sustain its energy supply, India needs urgent investments and reforms to fix the inefficiencies that plague its entire electricity supply chain.
To boost and sustain its energy supply, India needs urgent investments and reforms to fix the inefficiencies that plague its entire electricity supply chain. Credit: World Bank

Statistics show that what is commonly perceived as an energy gap in India is actually an efficiency gap.

To boost and sustain its energy supply, India needs urgent investments and reforms to fix the inefficiencies that plague its entire electricity supply chain. 

But first, the good news. In 2018, every village in India got connected to the grid.  That same year, power shortages declined dramatically to 0.9 percent from 8.5 percent in 2012.  

As for clean power, India has become one of the world’s leading countries in renewable energy and aims to add 227 gigawatts of green electricity by 2022.

True, India today generates more power than ever. Yet, 178 million Indians still lived without access to grid-connected electricity in 2017.

On top of that, air pollution from coal-powered plants contributed to 82,900 deaths across India in 2015.

Given its rapidly growing economy, demand for power in India is expected to triple by 2040.

The country faces a monumental task to meet this demand while protecting its natural environment and the health of its people.

As I write in my new report, ‘In the Dark’, power distortions cost India much more than previously estimated: $86 billion in 2016—that is 4 percent of the country’s economy.


Pages