We know that fiscal policy can be harnessed to reduce inequality in low- and middle-income countries, but until now, we knew less about its ability to reduce poverty. Our recent volume looks at the revenue and spending of governments across eight low and middle income countries (Armenia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Indonesia, Jordan, Russia, South Africa and Sri Lanka), and it reveals that fiscal systems, while nearly always reducing inequality, can often worsen poverty.
Researchers in development often hope that their research can ultimately influence policy. But getting from research results to policymaker persuasion is an ongoing struggle. Yesterday I heard insights on this point from Dasmine Kennedy of Jamaica’s Ministry of Education as well as Albert Motivans from Equal Measures 2030. (I also gave my two cents.)
There are many views about how a country develops. Some view institutions as the key determinant, while others emphasize the fundamental importance of human capital. Still others highlight the importance of infrastructure, while the World Bank and other international organizations have argued for improving the overall business environment in which firms operate. Finally, a recent strand of literature has emphasized the importance of agglomeration economies as a source of long-term growth. What, however, are the relative explanatory power of these alternative, though not necessarily-mutually exclusive, views? And are their effects specific to the context such as the level of development, the sector in which a firm operates, firm size and age? Answering these questions is important because governments only have limited resources to deal with key challenges. If there are bottlenecks to a country’s development, it is important to diagnose these to provide a sounder basis for policy.
Cities now drive as much as 80% of global GDP. They also consume close to two-thirds of the world’s energy and produce over 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions. And given the sheer scale of urban growth worldwide, these numbers are only expected to increase. Not surprisingly, cities are rapidly becoming the epicenters of economic growth, spurring innovation, fortifying institutions and nurturing the social fabric of dynamic communities.
Metals and mineral prices increased 8 percent, led by a 15 percent jump in nickel prices. All metal prices posted strong increases. Precious metals prices gained 4 percent led by a 5 percent increase in silver.
As the world’s largest workfare program, India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) has attracted much attention. Yet its impacts on agriculture have been relatively neglected. A recent paper by Deininger, Nagarajan, and Singh addresses this gap by focusing on the program’s effects on agricultural productivity as well as labor market outcomes.
The program offers unskilled employment, for up to 100 days a year per household, in projects to provide local productivity-enhancing infrastructure. Wages are set by statute, at rates that are equal for men and women and, it is hoped, not attractive enough to prevent effective self-targeting.
Inorganic fertilizer use by smallholder farmers is one way to boost soil fertility and associated crop-yields and farm incomes. Yet fertilizer use remains the lowest where yield increase is needed the most. Per the World Development Indicator database , inorganic fertilizer use averages 154 kgs/hectare in middle-income countries, while in low-income countries it is less than one-tenth this level at 13 kgs/hectare. What is driving this situation? And are at times fiscally expensive programs, such as government subsidies, commonly used in low income countries, the right solution?
Countries around the world have experimented with “school report cards”: providing parents with information about the quality of their school so that they can demand higher quality service for their children. The results have been mixed. Andrabi, Das, and Khwaja bring a significant contribution to that literature in last month’s American Economic Review with their article using data from Pakistan, “Report Cards: The Impact of Providing School and Child Test Scores on Educational Markets.”
Energy commodity prices increased 3 percent in July, led by a 3 percent gain in oil and 8 percent surge in coal, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet noted.
Agriculture prices rose 1 percent, led by 2 percent gains in oils & meals and beverages. Most other groups registered small increases, including raw materials (up nearly 1 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 1 percent.
Metals and mineral prices increased 5 percent, led by an 18 percent jump in iron ore prices. All base metal price recorded strong increases. Precious metals prices fell 2 percent led by a 5 percent decline in silver.
The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
Most commodity price indexes rose in July.
Global economic growth is accelerating. After registering the slowest pace since the 2007-2009 financial crisis in 2016, global growth is expected to rise to a 2.7 percent pace this year and 2.9 percent over 2018-19.
While much has been said about better economic news from the major advanced economies, the seven largest emerging market economies—call them the Emerging Market Seven, or EM7 – have been the main drivers of this anticipated pickup.
The contribution of the seven largest emerging market economies to global output has climbed substantially over the last quarter century.
The EM7 -- Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey – accounted for 24 percent of global economic output over 2010-2016, up from 14 percent in 1990s. Although this is a smaller share than the Group of Seven major industrialized economies, the G7’s portion of global economic output has narrowed to 48 percent from 60 percent over the same time frame.