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The growing economic clout of the biggest emerging markets in five charts

Ayhan Kose's picture

Global economic growth is accelerating. After registering the slowest pace since the 2007-2009 financial crisis in 2016, global growth is expected to rise to a 2.7 percent pace this year and 2.9 percent over 2018-19.

While much has been said about better economic news from the major advanced economies, the seven largest emerging market economies—call them the Emerging Market Seven, or EM7 – have been the main drivers of this anticipated pickup.

Chart 1:

The contribution of the seven largest emerging market economies to global output has climbed substantially over the last quarter century.

The EM7 -- Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey – accounted for 24 percent of global economic output over 2010-2016, up from 14 percent in 1990s. Although this is a smaller share than the Group of Seven major industrialized economies, the G7’s portion of global economic output has narrowed to 48 percent from 60 percent over the same time frame.
 

Contribution to global output (percent)

Charting a new path to income convergence

Margaret McMillan's picture

Developing countries made considerable gains during the 2000s, resulting in a large reduction in extreme poverty and a significant expansion of the middle class. More recently that progress has slowed—and the prognosis is for more of the same, given an environment of lackluster global trade, a lack of jobs coupled with skills mismatches, greater income inequality, unprecedented population aging in richer countries, and youth bulges in the poorer ones. As a result, developing countries are unlikely to close the development gap anytime soon.

Falling inequality: A Brazilian whodunnit

Francisco Ferreira's picture

Long one of the world’s most unequal countries, Brazil surprised pundits by recording a massive reduction in household income inequality in the last couple of decades. Between 1995 and 2012, the country’s Gini coefficient for household incomes fell by seven points, from 0.59 to 0.52. (For comparison, all of the inequality increase in the United States between 1967 and 2011 amounted to eight Gini points – according to this study.)

Do social factors determine “who we are” as well as the choice sets we have?

Karla Hoff's picture

The World Bank’s conference on “The State of Economics, the State of the World” was an opportunity to take stock of the emergence of new paradigms for understanding economic development.  Following Ken Arrow’s talk on the history of the neoclassical model and Shanta Devarajan’s comments on this model’s centrality in the Bank’s work, I had the opportunity to discuss two paradigms of how individuals make decisions that have recently emerged in economics, drawing on psychology, sociology, and anthropology.

Out of the shadows? Are firms more likely to formalize through tax simplification programs?

Caio Piza's picture
Red tape can be a significant barrier to having informal firms formalize and eventually benefit from any business support programs provided by governmental agencies. While the relationship between this formalization, access to finance and a firm’s performance has been implied by anecdotal evidence (de Soto 1989 and 2000), a recent survey of empirical evidence suggests that such programs may in fact achieve the opposite and not necessarily nudge firms to formalize. In fact, the evidence suggests that even with a significant reduction in red tape most informal firms decide to remain informal (see Bruhn and McKenzie 2013 for a survey).
 

The consequences of banning child labor

Caio Piza's picture
From a normative perspective, we can all agree that child labor is reprehensible and should be banned, particularly in its worst forms. According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), child labor has declined worldwide in the last fifteen years, but the numbers are still alarming. In 2012, 168 million children were a part of child labor with more than half of these kids involved in hazardous work.  

Lights, camera, action on entertainment education!

Anushka Thewarapperuma's picture

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Behavior change campaigns are all around us. They remind us to get our flu shots; warn us that food and drinks are not allowed when using public transportation; even prompt us to turn off the lights when we leave a room. They invoke socially acceptable norms and indirectly guide us towards positive behavior change. The advent of an assortment of new technologies and mass media outlets enables us to spread last-mile awareness on handwashing, safe sex, and gender-based violence, to name just a few.

Indeed, we in development, and governments that we work with, invest millions of dollars in behavior campaigns. However, many of these campaigns are unconvincing, lack inspiring narratives, and are communicated through outmoded and uninteresting outlets such as billboards and leaflets. Research shows that traditional mass media interventions are often ineffective in promoting behavior change, especially in the long run (Grilli et al 2002, Vidanapathirana et al 2005).
 
Entertainment Education

​Are mega-trade agreements a threat to Brazil?

Otaviano Canuto's picture
The landscape of international trade negotiations has been undergoing an upheaval. On the multilateral level, after 15 years of unsuccessful attempts to close the Doha Development Round at the World Trade Organization (WTO), the negotiation system has shown to be highly vulnerable to blockades by any small group of member countries. The complex web of diverse individual country objectives, cutting across several interrelated themes, made reaching a deal harder than originally expected.

Reflections on social protection and poverty alleviation from the long term impact of Chile Solidario

Emanuela Galasso's picture
Productive inclusion is the buzzword taking shape in social policy circles in Latin America, and other middle income countries. Graduation out of social assistance does not equate with (or presume) a sustained exit from poverty.

As many middle-income countries are moving towards embracing cash transfers with or without co-responsibilities attached (and the recent hype of handing cash directly to the poor), there is an important wave of programs that provide “cash plus” intervention.

The High Density of Brazilian Production Chains

Otaviano Canuto's picture

International trade has undergone a radical transformation in the past decades as production processes have fragmented along cross-border value chains. The Brazilian economy has remained on the fringes of this production revolution, maintaining a very high density of local supply chains. This article calls attention to the rising opportunity costs incurred by such option taken by the country.
 
Moving Tectonic Plates under the Global Economic Geography

In recent decades, international trade has gone through a revolution, with the wide extension of the organization of production in the form of cross-border value chains. This extension was a result of the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the incorporation of large swaths of workers in the global market economy in Asia and Central Europe, and technological innovations that allowed modularization and geographic distribution of production stages in a growing universe of activities. International trade has grown faster than world GDP and, within the former, the sales of intermediate products has risen faster than the sale of final goods.

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