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The World Region

Shifting commodity markets in a globalized world

Rabah Arezki's picture
In Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World, we track developments in energy, metals, and food markets since the early 2000s, when a “commodities super cycle” began. The super cycle first was marked by a decade-long increase in commodity prices—as rapid urbanization and a strong surge in infra­structure spending, especially in China, boosted demand for nearly all commodities. Then prices began to decline, in part due to short-term factors such as the global financial crisis. But longer-term issues were important to both the run up and subsequent fall in prices. In the book, which is published by the International Monetary Fund, we focus on those long-term issues, examining the relative importance of technology, geography, demography, and policy in each commodity mar­ket and how their interplay sends price signals to producers and consumers, who in turn adjust their behavior:

Navigating education's complexity: A review of the 2018 WDR

Brian Levy's picture

In a sector where a proliferation of research seemingly has contributed at least as much to confusion as to progress, the 2018 World Development Report (WDR), Learning to Realize Education’s Promise  sheds new light, and points towards fresh, hopeful pathways forward. It is a landmark contribution.
 
“Education for all” was the seductive promise of the millennium. Yet all too many children are attending school without acquiring even basic literacy or numeracy.  Why?

 

WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement and Doing Business reforms: Are they related and how?

Inés Zabalbeita Múgica's picture

Small differences in the time and cost to trade can determine whether or not a country participates in global value chains. In this respect, the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), which came into force on February 22, 2017, is a landmark achievement given its comprehensive coverage of the issues around cutting red tape and promoting efficiency and transparency, as well as the fact that it is the first multilateral agreement since the establishment of the WTO in 1995.  Coincidentally, the Trading Across Borders (TAB) indicator of Doing Business measures the efficiency of national regulations in trade facilitation and keeps track of relevant reforms, allowing us to analyze how the provisions of the TFA are related to the reform efforts of governments around the world.

Bank ownership: Trends and implications

Bob Cull's picture

In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), many wondered whether the strong pre-crisis trend toward greater internationalization in banking would be reversed and, more immediately, whether local state-owned banks had to assume a larger role in restoring banking stability and ensuring the delivery of credit. We revisit those conjectures in the light of new data on bank ownership and research on the post-Crisis period (Cull, Martinez Peria, and Verrier, 2018).

Improving public service delivery through local collective action

Xavier Gine's picture

In the past two decades, development policy has aimed to involve communities in the development process by encouraging the active participation of communities in the design and implementation of projects or the allocation of local resources. The World Bank alone has provided more than $85 billion for participatory development since the early 2000s.

Wrong criticisms of Doing Business

Shanta Devarajan's picture

While I welcome criticism and comments on the Doing Business (DB) report—or any other data and research product of the World Bank, for that matter—I find Justin Sandefur’s and Divyanshi Wadhwa’s (SW) recent blog posts on DB in Chile and India neither enlightening nor useful. 

Most commodity prices surged in January, led by energy–Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices surged 9 percent in January, the seventh monthly gain in a row, led by an almost 30 percent increase in U.S. natural gas prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices made solid advances as well, with metals and minerals prices gaining more than 5 percent, also the seventh consecutive monthly increase, and a five-year high. Nickel and zinc, up 12 and 8 percent respectively, led the rise.

Precious metals climbed nearly 6 percent, with similar gains in gold and silver.

Agricultural prices, which had been stable for nearly 2 years, increased more than 2 percent, led by advances in rice (+9 percent) and cotton (+5 percent). Fertilizer prices rose over 1 percent, led by DAP (+3 percent) and Urea (+2 percent).

The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
 
All commodity price indexes gained in January, led by energy
Source: World Bank.

Why the global economy could be turning a significant corner, in six charts

Ayhan Kose's picture

2018 will likely mark a turning point for the global economy. For the first time since 2008, the negative global output gap – defined as the difference between the levels of actual output and output if operating at full capacity – is expected to close. As the output gap closes in advanced economies, central banks are likely to normalize monetary policy after a decade of exceptional easing. With this anticipated withdrawal of stimulus by advanced economies, emerging market and developing economy policymakers need to remain alert to the potential for adverse spillovers.

Output gaps are closing

In 2018, for the first time since 2008, the negative global output gap is expected to be closed.

Global output gap
Source: World Bank staff estimates.
Notes: Output gaps calculated using multivariate filter. Global, regional, and group output gaps are calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP as weights. The sample includes 15 advanced economies (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States) and 23 EMDEs (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam). 2018 GDP is forecast. Dashed lines are 95 percent confidence interval bounds computed from the Kalman smoother state variances. Global lower and upper bounds are obtained as GDP-weighted averages of individual country lower and upper bounds.

What triggered the oil price plunge of 2014-2016 and why it failed to deliver an economic impetus in eight charts

Marc Stocker's picture
Also available in: Español

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

The 2014-16 collapse in oil prices was driven by a growing supply glut, but failed to deliver the boost to global growth that many had expected. In the event, the benefits of substantially lower oil prices were muted by the low responsiveness of economic activity in key oil-importing emerging markets, the effects on U.S. activity of a sharp contraction in energy investment and an abrupt slowdown in key oil exporters. 

Biggest drop in oil prices in modern history

Between mid-2014 and early 2016, the global economy faced one of the largest oil price declines in modern history. The 70 percent price drop during that period was one of the three biggest declines since World War II, and the longest lasting since the supply-driven collapse of 1986.

Real oil prices
Source: World Bank.
Notes: Real oil prices are calculated as the nominal price deflated by the international manufacturers unit value index, in which 100=2010. World Bank crude oil average. Last observation is November 2017.

Building solid foundations: How to promote potential growth, in six charts

Franziska Ohnsorge's picture

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Despite an acceleration of global economic activity, potential output growth (the growth that can be sustained at full employment and capacity) has slowed. The slowdown reflected weak investment growth, slowing productivity growth, and demographic trends. These forces will continue, and, unless countered, will depress global potential growth further over the next ten years. 

Global Potential Growth Is Below its Long-term Average. Global potential growth slowed in 2013-17 below its longer-term average, whether globally, among advanced economies (AEs) or among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
Sources: World Bank estimates; Haver Analytics; Penn World Tables; World Development Indicators, World Bank. 
Notes: A.  Based on production function approach, GDP-weighted averages for a sample of 30 advanced economies and 50 EMDEs. 

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