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The World Region

Why 2018 global growth will be strong, and why there is still cause for concern, in 10 charts

Carlos Arteta's picture
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Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018. Global trade regained significant momentum, supported by an upturn in investment.

As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions.

A major concern in the subdued pace of potential growth across emerging market and developing economies, which is expected to further decline in the next decade. Structural reforms will be essential to stem this decline, and counter the negative effects of any future crisis that could materialize.

The broad-based recovery should continue

Global growth accelerated markedly in 2017, supported by a broad-based recovery across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and it is expected to edge up in 2018.
 
Growth

Energy and raw materials prices gained in December, beverages and fertilizer prices fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices gained 2 percent in December—the sixth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 6 percent increase in coal prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices declined marginally, as a 5 percent decline in beverages, led by cocoa (down 10 percent) outweighed a 2 percent increase in raw materials prices, led by cotton (up 6 percent) and natural rubber (up 5 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 5 percent, led by a 11 percent drop in urea.

Metals and mineral prices gained less than 1 percent. A large gain in iron ore (up 12 percent) was offset by declines in zinc and nickel. Precious metals prices declined 2 percent, led by a 1 percent decline in gold.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
 
Energy and raw material price indexes increased in December while beverage and fertilizer prices declined sharply.

 

How did starting a business become easier than ever?

Frederic Meunier's picture

With more jobs and competitiveness in mind, many economies worldwide have simplified their business start-up rules and regulations over recent years. Since the first Doing Business report was launched 15 years ago in 2003, a total of 626 national reforms that reduced the time and the costs of starting a business were recorded globally.

Migration: The future depends on our actions today

Caglar Ozden's picture

Around 250 million migrants currently live outside their countries of birth, making up approximately 3.5 percent of the world population. Despite the widespread perception of a global migration crisis, this ratio has stayed remarkably stable since the end of the Second World War and lags well behind other major metrics of globalization – international trade, capital flows, tourism etc. A more remarkable statistic is that refugees, at around 15 million, account for 6 percent of the migrant population and only 0.2 percent of world population. In other words, we can fit all refugees in the world in a city with an area of 5000 square kilometers – roughly the size of metropolitan Istanbul or London or Paris – and still have some space left over.

Bouncing back: Resilience as a predictor of food insecurity

Erwin Knippenberg's picture

One in eight people worldwide still go to bed hungry every night, and the increased severity of natural disasters like droughts only exacerbates this situation. Humanitarian agencies and development practitioners are increasingly focused on helping the most vulnerable recover from the effect of these shocks by boosting their resilience. 

Are public credit guarantees worth the hype?

Sergio Schmukler's picture

Public credit guarantees have become a popular instrument to expand lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). More than 30 percent of credit guarantee schemes around the world have some form of state ownership. Public credit guarantee schemes are particularly important in developing countries, where they are the main type of guarantee scheme.

Global poverty today, the 1908 winter in St. Petersburg, and ‘controversy bias’

Francisco Ferreira's picture

Robert Allen’s recent AER paper on “Absolute Poverty: When Necessity Displaces Desire” is a fascinating read, on many levels. The paper uses linear programming (LP) to compute (four variants of) least-cost diets for twenty countries, using prices from the International Comparisons Project (ICP) microdata. To the resulting least-cost food budgets, estimates of non-food costs covering housing, fuel, lighting, clothing and soap are added, generating “basic need poverty lines” (BNPL) for each country.

Populism and development policy

Varun Gauri's picture

Populism – the idea that a particular social group speaks for the nation as a whole, and should be first in the line for social benefits – threatens the core values of the post-World War order. It also challenges the World Bank’s own approach to development policy. As the world prepares for the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights with a year-long commemoration, culminating on December 10, 2018, we at the World Bank can use the occasion to reflect on our commitments and uphold them courageously.

Feeding the craving for precision on global poverty

Francisco Ferreira's picture

Online pundits, hurried journalists and policymakers love precision. They crave numbers. Preferably exact numbers; ranges suggest uncertainty and make them anxious. As a result, they will love the World Poverty Clock (WPC), a new website that claims to track progress towards ending global poverty in real time (see also this blog and Financial Times article). The website tells you that 632,470,507 people are currently living in extreme poverty - or were, on December 6 at 10:00am… Even more amazingly, the site claims to forecast poverty at any point in the future until 2030, the deadline for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. By scrolling along the elegant timeline on the bottom of the WPC screen you will learn, for example, that in 2028, 459,309,506 people will be living in extreme poverty!

Energy prices surged in November, beverages and fertilizer prices fell–Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Also available in: Español | Français

Energy commodity prices surged 8 percent in November—the fifth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 9 percent increase in oil prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices made marginal gains as a 1 percent decline in beverages was balanced by a 1 percent increase in food prices, notably natural rubber (down 12 percent) and cotton (off 2 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 3 percent, led by a 6 percent drop in Urea.

Metals and mineral prices were unchanged. Gains in nickel and iron ore were balanced by declines in lead and aluminum. Precious metals prices rose marginally.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.

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