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Commodities

Energy prices fell 15 percent in November–Pink Sheet

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Energy commodity prices plunged more than 15 percent in November, led by oil (-19 percent) and coal (-7 percent), the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices declined by 1 percent, due to losses in agriculture and metals.

Agricultural prices fell 1 percent—a 3 percent decline in oils and meals was offset by a marginal gain in beverages.

Fertilizer prices gained nearly 6 percent, led by a 13 percent increase in urea.

Fertilizer prices to rise in 2019 on supportive fundamentals

John Baffes's picture

This blog is the seventh in a series of ten blogs on commodity market developments, elaborating on themes discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. Earlier blogs are here.
 
The World Bank’s Fertilizer Price Index is expected to rise 2 percent in 2019, following a projected increase of 9 percent in 2018. The index rose 8 percent in the third quarter of 2018 (q/q) on high energy costs and tight supplies and was more than 18 percent higher than 2017Q3.

Beverage prices weak on good crops and currency movements

John Baffes's picture

This blog is the fifth in a series of ten blogs on commodity market developments, elaborating on themes discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. Earlier blogs are here.
 
The World Bank’s Beverage Price Index is projected to stabilize in 2019 after a more than 5 percent decline in 2018 from the previous year. Beverage prices declined almost 9 percent in the third quarter (q/q), with roughly similar losses across all three components (coffee, cocoa, and tea), reflecting more supplies than expected in all markets.
 
Beverage price index

 

Food prices to edge up in 2019 but energy, trade, and foreign exchange could unsettle outlook

John Baffes's picture

This blog is the fourth in a series of ten blogs on commodity market developments, elaborating on themes discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. Earlier blogs are here.
 
Grain prices are projected to edge up 1 percent in 2019 after an estimated 10 percent rise in 2018, and oils and meals prices are expected to increase more than 2 percent next year, reversing a 2 percent decline this year. However, these price forecasts are subjected to risks that include energy, trade, and foreign exchange movements.
 
After gaining some momentum in early 2018, most food commodity prices weakened significantly in the third quarter. The World Bank’s Grain Price Index declined nearly 6 percent in Q3 but was 8 percent higher than a year ago. The Oils and Meals Price Index fell almost 11 percent in Q3, and stands 3 percent lower than a year ago.
 

Pumped up? Prospects for oil markets in 2019

Peter Nagle's picture

This blog is the second in a series of ten blogs on commodity market developments, elaborating on themes discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. Earlier blogs are here.

Recent Developments and Forecasts

Oil prices have been volatile in 2018, with the price of Brent, the international barometer, ranging from $63/bbl to $86/bbl. Prices have been buffeted by an array of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, notably supply disruptions in Venezuela, and the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions against Iran. These factors supported prices this year, particularly in September and October; however, prices fell sharply in early November as fears of a supply shortfall receded after the United States announced temporary waivers to its sanctions on Iran for eight countries, as well as stronger-than-expected U.S. oil production.

Commodity Markets Outlook: Modest oil price rise, trade uncertainty

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Commodity prices have moved in different directions in recent months – energy prices rose while agriculture and metal prices fell – and are expected to rise or stabilize in 2019, according to the October Commodity Markets Outlook. The following five charts explain:  

Figure 1: Energy and agriculture prices are seen rising in 2019, but forecasts are revised down for all commodities except energy and fertilizers.

Energy prices gain 7 percent in May–Pink Sheet

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Energy commodity prices gained more than 7 percent in May, with advances in U.S. natural gas (+27 percent), coal (+12 percent) and oil (+7 percent), the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices changed little as a 1.4 percent gain in beverages was balanced by a 2 percent loss in raw materials and a 1.1 percent decline in Fertilizers.

Metals prices gained 0.4 percent, led by nickel (+3 percent) and aluminum (+2 percent).

Precious metals prices lost 2.1 percent, led by a similar decline in gold.

The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
 
Commodity prices advanced in May

Source: World Bank.

Why commodity prices are rising, in nine charts

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Commodity prices strengthened in early 2018, supported by supply and demand factors, including accelerated global growth, which has lifted demand for most industrial commodities, and supply constraints affecting others.

Chart 1: Commodity prices are forecast to rise across the board

The energy price index is anticipated to rise 20 percent in 2018, largely on strengthening of oil prices. The increase is a 16-percentage point upward revision from October 2017. Metal prices are projected to increase 9 percent in 2018 due to a further pickup in demand. Agricultural prices are forecast to gain more than 2 percent.
 
2018 commodity price rise forecasts (percent change from 2017 to 2018)
Source: World Bank

Energy prices advanced, fertilizer prices declined in April -- Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices gained 8.2 percent in April, led by a 40 percent increase in U.S. natural gas prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices advanced 1.8 percent while agricultural prices increased 1.7 percent on higher prices for wheat (up 11 percent), rice and cocoa (4 percent rises each), soybean meal and tea (4 percent gains each). Fertilizer prices decreased 0.7 percent, led by a 5 percent drop in urea.

Metals prices gained 2.3 percent, led by gains in aluminum (up 9 percent) and nickel (4 percent rise).

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