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Agriculture and Rural Development

Where commodity prices are going, explained in nine charts

John Baffes's picture
The most recent World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts commodities prices to level off next year after big gains for industrial commodities—energy and metals—in 2017. Commodity prices appear to be stabilizing after a boom that peaked in 2011, albeit at a higher average level than pre-boom.
 
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Energy and fertilizer prices rose in October, raw materials and precious metals fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices increased more than 3 percent in October, a fourth consecutive monthly gain, led by a strengthening in oil, according to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet.

Agriculture prices edged lower in the month, as raw materials declined, notably natural rubber, which tumbled 12 percent. Food and beverage prices changed little. Fertilizer prices climbed over 5 percent, helped by a 12 percent jump in urea.

A new twist on the inverse scale-productivity relationship in African agriculture

Talip Kilic's picture

One of the most storied topics in agricultural economics, dating back to Chayanov’s work on Russian peasants published nearly a century ago, is the inverse relationship between scale (in terms of farm or plot size) and (land) productivity - commonly known as the IR.

Nearly all commodity price indexes rose in September – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices increased more than 5 percent in September—the third consecutive monthly gain—led by a surge in oil prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Non-energy prices rose modestly. Agriculture prices climbed a little over 1 percent, led by strong upturns in most edible oils and wheat.
The outlier to the trend of increases, beverage prices, fell 1 percent due to weakness in coffee prices. Fertilizer prices surged over 6 percent, led by a 16 percent jump in Urea.

Most commodity price indexes rose in August, led by metals – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices increased 4 percent in August, led by a 5 percent gain in oil and 10 percent surge in coal, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet noted.

Metals and mineral prices increased 8 percent, led by a 15 percent jump in nickel prices. All metal prices posted strong increases. Precious metals prices gained 4 percent led by a 5 percent increase in silver.

Understanding the effects of the world’s largest workfare program

Klaus Deininger's picture

As the world’s largest workfare program, India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) has attracted much atten­tion. Yet its impacts on agriculture have been relatively neglected. A re­cent paper by Deininger, Nagarajan, and Singh addresses this gap by fo­cusing on the program’s effects on ag­ricultural productivity as well as labor market outcomes.

The program offers unskilled em­ployment, for up to 100 days a year per household, in projects to provide local productivity-enhancing infrastructure. Wages are set by statute, at rates that are equal for men and women and, it is hoped, not attractive enough to pre­vent effective self-targeting.

Unraveling the dynamics of agricultural input subsidies

Guigonan Serge Adjognon's picture

Inorganic fertilizer use by smallholder farmers is one way to boost soil fertility and associated crop-yields and farm incomes. Yet fertilizer use remains the lowest where yield increase is needed the most. Per the World Development Indicator database , inorganic fertilizer use averages 154 kgs/hectare in middle-income countries, while in low-income countries it is less than one-tenth this level at 13 kgs/hectare.  What is driving this situation? And are at times fiscally expensive programs, such as government subsidies, commonly used in low income countries, the right solution?

Most commodity price indexes rose in July, led by metals – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture

Energy commodity prices increased 3 percent in July, led by a 3 percent gain in oil and 8 percent surge in coal, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet noted.

Agriculture prices rose 1 percent, led by 2 percent gains in oils & meals and beverages. Most other groups registered small increases, including raw materials (up nearly 1 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 1 percent.

Metals and mineral prices increased 5 percent, led by an 18 percent jump in iron ore prices. All base metal price recorded strong increases. Precious metals prices fell 2 percent led by a 5 percent decline in silver.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.

Most commodity price indexes rose in July.

 

Energy prices fell 6 percent in June — Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture

Energy commodity prices declined 6 percent in June, led by a 7.5 percent plunge in oil, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet said.

Agriculture prices dropped nearly 2 percent, with most groups easing, including food and beverages (down 1 percent each) and raw materials (off 3.5 percent). Fertilizer prices gained 2 percent.

Metals and mineral prices slid 1 percent, led by an 8 percent tumble in iron ore prices. Precious metals prices increased 1 percent.

The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.

Energy prices fell in May, led by oil, coal – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices declined 4 percent in May, led by a 4.3 percent drop in oil and an 11.7 plunge in coal, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet said. Natural gas prices rose 1.6 percent.

Food prices increased 2.4 percent, following gains in key grains (rice and wheat) and edible oils. Beverage prices eased 1 percent due to weak coffee prices. Fertilizer prices receded nearly 6 percent.

Metals and minerals prices slid 2.4 percent, led by an 11 percent tumble in iron ore. Precious metals were off 2.6 percent.  It was the third monthly decline for metals.

The Pink Sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
 
Commodity Prices

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