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快速老龄化的东亚地区怎样才能保持其经济活力?

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English
Panos Agency


过去三十年来,东亚地区收获了人口红利。大量且不断增长的劳动力对上世纪六十至九十年代人均收入增长的贡献接近三分之一,使得该地区成为全球增长引擎。
 
当前,东亚地区正面临另一个人口趋势构成的挑战:人口快速老龄化。新发布的一份世界银行报告发现,东亚和太平洋地区人口老龄化速度和规模均位于全球各地区首位。
 
目前,超过2.11亿65岁及以上人口居住在东亚和太平洋地区,占全球该年龄组别总人口36%。到2040年,东亚地区老龄人口将增长一倍以上,达到4.79亿;韩国、中国、泰国等国适龄就业人口将萎缩10%-15%。
 
纵观该地区,随着适龄就业人口减少和老龄化加速,政策制定者正关注人口老龄化对经济增长的潜在影响以及医疗卫生、养老金和长期养老体系对公共支出日益增加的需求。

随着该地区人口快速老龄化,政府部门、用人单位以及各家庭应如何确保辛勤工作的人们在进入老龄阶段后过上健康且有产出的生活?东亚和太平洋地区各社会应如何促进生产性老龄化并且提升包容性?

How can rapidly aging East Asia sustain its economic dynamism?

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文
Panos Agency


In the last three decades, East Asia has reaped the demographic dividend. An abundant and growing labor force powered almost one-third of the region’s per capita income growth from the 1960s to the 1990s, making it the world’s growth engine.
 
Now, East Asia is facing the challenges posed by another demographic trend: rapid aging. A new World Bank report finds that East Asia and Pacific is aging faster – and on a larger scale – than any other region in history.
 
More than 211 million people ages 65 and over live in East Asia and Pacific, accounting for 36 percent of the global population in that age group. By 2040, East Asia’s older population will more than double, to 479 million, and the working-age population will shrink by 10 percent to 15 percent in countries such as Korea, China, and Thailand.
 
Across the region, as the working-age population declines and the pace of aging accelerates, policy makers are concerned with the potential impact of aging on economic growth and rising demand for public spending on health, pension and long-term care systems.
 
As the region ages rapidly, how do governments, employers and households ensure that hard-working people live healthy and productive lives in old age? How do societies in East Asia and Pacific promote productive aging and become more inclusive?
 

Five facts about rice and poverty in the Greater Mekong Sub-region

Sergiy Zorya's picture

The Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) is a major global rice producer and exporter but its population suffers from serious levels of poverty and malnutrition.
 
Spanning six countries – China, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam – the region is home to 334 million people. Nearly 60 million of them are involved in rice production, growing collectively over 44% of the world’s rice. All of the countries, except China, are net exporters of rice. This means they have more rice available than required for domestic consumption. Yet, nearly 15% of the population is seriously malnourished and about 40% of children under five are stunted, in other words, too short for their age as a result of under nutrition.
 

我们必须时刻准备再次迎来严重厄尔尼诺现象

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English
厄尔尼诺现象又回来了,而且可能会来的更猛。
 
干旱季节印尼东爪哇省Madiun的Dawuhan大坝干裂的河床上搁浅的木船。  2015年10月28日 © ANTARA FOTO/路透社/Corbis


今年上半年太平洋水域开始出现新一轮周期性变暖,亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲都已感受到其影响。首次观察到太平洋海水变暖是在数百年前,自1950年以来正式开始监测跟踪。

气象专家预测此次厄尔尼诺现象将会持续到2016年春并有可能造成大破坏,因为气候变化可能导致一些地区暴雨和洪水加剧,另一些地区出现严重干旱和缺水。

厄尔尼诺的影响是全球性的,预计南美地区会遭遇暴雨和大洪水,非洲地区会经受酷热和干旱。

中国的“一带一路”倡议:我们迄今为止知道什么

Bert Hofman's picture
Also available in: English
习近平主席在2013年发起中国的“一带一路”倡议,明确的目标是要通过基础设施建设、贸易和投资推进主要欧亚国家的相互对接。这一倡议具体包括陆上的“丝绸之路经济带”和海上的“21世纪海上丝绸之路”两大国际贸易通道。
 
“一带”是一个由陆上的公路铁路、油气管道以及其他基础设施项目形成的网络,从中国中部的西安经过中亚并最终到达莫斯科、阿姆斯特丹和威尼斯等地。“一带”不是一条路线,而是沿主要亚欧大陆桥、通过中蒙俄、中国-中亚-西亚、中国-中南半岛、中巴、孟中印缅的六条经济走廊。
 
 “一路”是“一带”在海上的对应,是一个由规划中的港口和其他沿海基础设施项目形成的网络,其范围从南亚和东南亚到东非和地中海北部。
 

China’s One Belt One Road Initiative: What we know thus far

Bert Hofman's picture
Also available in: 中文
President Xi Jinping launched China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative in 2013 with the stated aim to connect major Eurasian economies through infrastructure, trade and investment. The initiative was later specified to contain two international trade connections: The land-based "Silk Road Economic Belt" and oceangoing "Maritime Silk Road." 
 
The “Belt” is a network of overland road and rail routes, oil and natural gas pipelines, and other infrastructure projects that will stretch from Xi’an in central China through Central Asia and ultimately reach as far as Moscow, Rotterdam, and Venice. Rather than one route, belt corridors are set to run along the major Eurasian Land Bridges, through China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central and West Asia, China-Indochina Peninsula, China-Pakistan, Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar.
 
The “Road” is its maritime equivalent: a network of planned ports and other coastal infrastructure projects that dot the map from South and Southeast Asia to East Africa and the northern Mediterranean Sea.
 

We must prepare now for another major El Niño

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文
El Niño is back and may be stronger than ever.
 
A wooden boat is seen stranded on the dry cracked riverbed of the Dawuhan Dam during drought season in Madiun, Indonesia's East Java province.  October 28, 2015 © ANTARA FOTO/Reuters/Corbis



The latest cyclical warming of Pacific Ocean waters, first observed centuries ago and formally tracked since 1950, began earlier this year and already has been felt across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Weather experts predict this El Niño will continue into the spring of 2016 and could wreak havoc, because climate change is likely to exacerbate the intensity of storms and flooding in some places and of severe drought and water shortages in others.

El Niño’s impacts are global, with heavy rain and severe flooding expected in South America and scorching weather and drought conditions likely in the Horn of Africa region.

동아시아의 도전 과제

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English | 中文

동아시아는 지난 30년 간 이어진 전례 없는 경제 성장 덕분에 전 세계 경제의 25%를 차지하는 경제 동력원으로 성장했다. 중국, 인도네시아, 말레이시아, 태국, 베트남을 비롯한 이 지역은 좀 더 노동 집약적이고 포용적인 성장을 이루어낸 덕분에 수억명의 사람이 극심한 가난에서 벗어나 더 큰 번영을 누릴 수 있었다.

이러한 성공에는 대가가 따랐다. 지난 해를 기준으로 동아시아 인구 중 1억명이 아직도 하루 1.25 달러로 생활한다. 약 2억 6000만명이 여전히 하루 2달러 미만으로 생활하고 있는데, 이들은 세계 경제가 악화되거나 자국에 보건 악재 혹은 식량난이 발생하면 다시 가난에 빠질 가능성이 있다. 이들의 불확실한 미래야말로 동아시아의 급성장이 낳은 불평등이 갈수록 커지고 있음을 보여준다. 

이 지역의 소득 격차는 2008년 세계 금융위기로 말미암아 한층 가중되었다. 중국과 인도네시아의 경우 소득 격차가 악화되었으며 싱가포르, 말레이시아, 필리핀에서는 소득 격차의 정도가 계속해서 높은 수준에 머물러 있다..

东亚的挑战:确保经济增长惠及贫困人口

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English | 한국어

东亚地区在过去30年经历了史无前例的经济增长,成为占世界经济四分之一的世界经济发展龙头。

在很大程度上由于劳动集约型和包容性经济增长,包括中国、印尼、马来西亚、泰国和越南等国在内的东亚地区使亿万人民摆脱了极贫状况,走上富裕之路。

然而,成功的同时仍有挑战。截止到2014年,东亚地区还有一亿人每天生活费低于1.25美元,约有2.6亿人每天生活费低于2美元。如果全球经济出现滑坡,如果家人生病、遭遇粮荒或受到其他冲击,他们就有可能重新陷入贫困。他们面对不确定的未来,反映出东亚高速增长带来的日益严重的不平等。

East Asia’s challenge: ensuring that growth helps poor

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: 中文 | 한국어

Unprecedented economic growth in the last three decades propelled East Asia into an economic powerhouse responsible for a quarter of the world’s economy.

Hundreds of millions of people across the region, including in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, lifted themselves out of extreme poverty and enjoyed greater prosperity, largely because of more labor-intensive and inclusive growth.

The success didn’t come without challenges. As of last year, 100 million people in East Asia still live on $1.25 a day. About 260 million still live on $2 a day or less, and they could fall back into poverty if the global economy takes a turn for the worse or if they face health, food and other shocks at home. Their uncertain future shows the increasing inequality of East Asia’s galloping growth.

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