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Revisi PDB Indonesia: Potret yang Lebih Tepat

Alex Sienaert's picture
Also available in: English



Badan Pusat Statistik telah mengeluarkan statistik triwulan nasional pada 5 Februari 2015. Biasanya data yang diterbitkan secara triwulanan akan mengundang keingintahuan yang besar (setidaknya bagi para ekonom makro dan pengamat ekonomi yang selalu haus akan perkembangan data terbaru tren pertumbuhan jangka pendek). Namun data yang dihasilkan BPS kali ini mempunyai kekhususan karena selain memberikan data triwulan  tahun 2014, juga terdapat dua revisi signifikan terhadap statistik PDB Indonesia yaitu: (1) menggeser tahun dasar perhitungan PDB dari tahun 2000 menjadi 2010, dan (2) mengadopsi metodologi dan presentasi statisik yang jauh lebih baru (yaitu memperbaharui perhitungan neraca nasional dari Sistem SNA 1993 menjadi SNA 2008).[1]

Dengan adanya revisi ini, hal baru apa yang bisa diketahui tentang perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia yang tidak kita ketahui sebelumnya? Satu perubahan yang langsung terlihat adalah: output total dengan harga nominal saat ini menjadi sekitar 4,4 persen lebih besar dibanding estimasi pada tahun 2014 (dan rata-rata 5,2 persen lebih besar pada periode 2010-2014). Hal ini merupakan perubahan yang signifikan menambah Rp 448 triliun, atau sekitar USD 35,3 milyar pada besaran estimasi ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun 2014. Menurut BPS, sekitar sepertiga output tambahan tersebut adalah hasil penyertaan beberapa aktivitas ekonomi baru di bawah SNA 2008, dan sekitar dua-pertiga berasal dari perbaikan pengukuran.

Indonesia’s GDP revision: a crisper snapshot

Alex Sienaert's picture
Also available in: Bahasa Indonesia



Indonesia’s national statistics agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released quarterly national accounts statistics on February 5. Any quarterly data release creates a flurry of interest (well, at least amongst macroeconomists and economy-watchers hungry for the latest update on near-term growth trends). But this is a particularly important release because, as well as providing data for the final quarter of 2014, it also incorporates two significant revisions to Indonesia’s GDP statistics: (1) it  shifts the basis of the computation from the year 2000 to 2010, and (2) it adopts a significantly updated methodology and presentation of the statistics (updating Indonesia’s national accounts from the 1993 System of National Accounts [SNA] to SNA 2008).[1]

What do these revisions tell us about Indonesia’s economy that we didn’t know before? One change immediately stands out: total output in current prices is about 4.4 percent larger than previously estimated in 2014 (and 5.2 percent larger on average over 2010-2014). This is a significant change, adding IDR 448 trillion, or about USD 35.5 billion at the current market exchange rate, to the estimated size of the economy as of 2014. Roughly a third of the extra measured output is due to the incorporation of new kinds of economic activity under SNA 2008, and about two-thirds comes from more accurate measurements of previously-measured kinds of output, according to BPS.  

Philippines: Traffic woes and the road ahead

louielimkin's picture
Traffic congestion results in an estimated productivity loss of around PHP2.4 billion ($54 million) a day or more than PHP800 billion ($18 billion) a year.



From my house in northern Quezon City, I drive more than two hours every day to get to the office in Bonifacio Global City, which is about three cities away where I come from, and two cities away from the capital Manila. It’s a journey that should only take around half an hour under light traffic. That is a total of four hours on the road a day, if there is no road accident or bad weather. It takes me an hour longer whenever I use the public transport system. Along with hundreds of thousands of Metro Rail Transit (MRT) commuters, I have to contend with extremely long lines, slow trains, and frequent delays due to malfunctions. This has been my experience for several years. Many of us might be wondering: why have these problems persisted?

Cities and PPPs: I’ve got Ulaanbaatar on my mind

David Lawrence's picture
Photo courtesy of christahasenkopf.com

I recently read a quote by Edward Glaeser, an urban economist, in the latest issue of IFC’s quarterly journal on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), which caught my attention:

Statistically, there is a near-perfect correlation between urbanization and prosperity among nations. As a country’s urban population rises by 10 percent, the country’s per capita output increases by 30 percent.

Mongolia: what are the risks for an economy that's growing at 20 percent?

Rogier van den Brink's picture

Available in: монгол хэл

There is good news coming out of Mongolia, the land of the eternal blue skies. The economy racked up a second quarter of high growth: the third quarter came in at 20.8 percent, topping the equally amazing second quarter of 17.3 percent (year-on-year GDP growth), as discussed in the World Bank's latest Mongolia Quarterly Update. And while this growth spurt originated in the mining sector, with Oyu Tolgoi—a mega copper and gold mine—getting ready to start producing in 2012 and a whole battery of other, smaller mines producing at full capacity, the high growth is quite broad-based. Even manufacturing is doing well.