The prediction season is in full swing, and prognosticators have, as usual, appended the warning that economic forecasts at this stage are subject to exceptional uncertainty. Such exceptional uncertainty is always with us when looking ahead – there is always a fork in the road, no matter what the circumstances are.
The nuance this year is that, while the recovery in East Asia will depend on prospects for the rest of the world, notably in the advanced economies, the outlook for those economies hinges on policies to address the causes of the financial crisis. Thus far, it’s clear that very little has been done to redress the regulatory issues that led to a near meltdown of the global financial system – while the rebound from the financial and economic crisis has been substantially stronger than anticipated only months earlier. And these developments explain why opinions differ on the future path of regulatory reforms and their impacts.
The winds of change are blowing in Malaysia, as the government is taking on an ambitious agenda of structural reform. The objective is to climb up the income ladder and join the league of high-income economies. This is a difficult challenge – one which not many countries have successfully met in the post-war period.
Against this backdrop, the World Bank’s launch of a new report on the Malaysian economy (full disclosure: I lead the team who authors the report) is timely. The Malaysia Economic Monitor, which will be published twice a year, aims to provide context to the challenges facing Malaysia and serves as a platform for discussion and the sharing of knowledge.
(This entry was originally published in English on Sep. 9, 2009)
ຕັ້ງແຕ່ໄດ້ເຮັດວຽກເພື່ອຊ່ວຍເຫຼືອວຽກງານດ້ານການສື່ສານ ແລະ ຂໍ້ມູນຂ່າວສານໃຫ້ແກ່ໂຄງການ ໄຟຟ້ານ້ຳເທີນ 2 (NT2) ຢູ່ລາວໃນຕົ້ນປີນີ້, ຂ້ອຍກໍ່ໄດ້ຟັງຫຼາຍຄົນເວົ້າວ່າ ໂຄງການນີ້ມີຄວາມໝາຍຫຼາຍກ່ວາໂຄງການພັດທະນາໄຟຟ້ານ້ຳຕົກ. ຖ້າຫາກໄດ້ອ່ານ ແລະ ສຶກສາຄົ້ນຄ້ວາ ກ່ຽວກັບການປະຕິຮູບໂຄງສ້າງຫຼາຍໆດ້ານ ທີ່ລັດທະບານລາວໄດ້ຈັດຕັ້ງປະຕິບັດ ເພື່ອດຳເນີນໂຄງການດັ່ງກ່າວ, ທ່ານຈະສາມາດເຂົ້າໃຈວ່າເປັນຫຍັງຄົນຈຳນວນຫຼາຍຈຶ່ງເວົ້າແນວນັ້ນ. ໃນມໍ່ໆມານີ້, ຂ້ອຍກໍ່ໄດ້ມີໂອກາດໄປສຳພາດກັບບາງວຽກງານ ທີ່ໄດ້ປະກອບສ່ວນອັນສຳຄັນໃຫ້ແກ່ໂຄງການນີ້ ແລະ ເປັນປະສົບການທີ່ຫຼາຍຄົນບໍ່ອາດຄາດຄິດມາກ່ອນ ແຕ່ມັນແມ່ນມີຄວາມໝາຍອັນສຳຄັນຕໍ່ໂຄງການ.
|At Ban Thalang, a resettled village in the Nakai area of Laos, a standing memory of a not-so-forgotten past is now being happily used as a green onion harvesting pot.|
This somewhat provocative question was the title of a conference hosted by Oxford and Standard Charter this week in London. My answer was: "No, not tomorrow; but yes, eventually – especially if China continues to vigorously pursue economic reform."
The reason that China cannot be the engine of global growth tomorrow is straight-forward. For the last decade an awful lot of the final demand in the world has come from the U.S. That era is over for the time being as U.S. households now concentrate on rebuilding their savings. No one country can fill the gap left by the slowdown in U.S. consumption: Japan, Germany, and China together have less consumption than the U.S., so no one of them can replace the U.S. as the major source of demand in the world. It's not realistic to expect China to play that role. But we are probably moving into a more multi-polar period in which there is more balanced growth in all of the major economies.
|Chinese farmers prospered under the return to the household responsibility system. Nationwide, grain production jumped 20 percent as a result of strengthened incentives.|
|Pictures with my students in the spring of 1986. The lives of college students in China have since changed tremendously.|
The professor who invited me was my student 23 years ago when I was teaching for a semester at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences graduate school here in Beijing. So, it was natural to think about the changes in the lives of college students as a result of 30 years of opening up.