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Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

Recipe for economic growth in the Philippines: invest in infrastructure, education, and job creation

Rogier van den Brink's picture
The report says that a highly-educated, healthier and skilled workforce will enhance productivity.

Economic news coming from the Philippines is surprisingly positive, and this has not gone unnoticed in international circles, judging by the number of inquiries we—the World Bank economic team in Manila that I am now leading—are getting. Our GDP growth forecast for 2012 (included in the new Philippines Quarterly Update report) is a solid 4.6 percent, while the first quarter saw an even more respectable growth rate of 6.4 percent. Other good news: foreign direct investment doubled in the first quarter, exports were up by 18 percent, and two ratings agencies upgraded their outlook on the Philippines.

However, the economy faces two challenges going forward: it will need to defend itself against a global slowdown, and it will also need to create a more inclusive growth pattern—one that creates more and better jobs, because performance on job creation has not been part of the positive news coming from the Philippines for quite a while now.

Монгол: 20 хувийн өсөлт бүхий эдийн засгийн эрсдэл нь юу вэ?

Rogier van den Brink's picture

Available in English

 Мөнхийн хөх тэнгэртэй Монгол орноос чимэгтэй сайхан мэдээнүүд сонсогдож эхэллээ.  Энэ оны гуравдугаар улиралд эдийн засаг 20.8 хувь өсч, хоёрдугаар улиралын 17.3 хувийн өсөлтийг ч гүйцсэн нь урьд өмнө байгаагүй эдийн засгийн тэсрэлтийг бий болголоо ( өмнөх жилийн мөн үетэй харьцуулсан өсөлт). Энэ өсөлт нь уул уурхайн салбар, ялангуяа 2012 онд үйлдвэрлэлт нь эхлэх алт зэсний дэлхийн хэмжээний орд болох Оюу толгойгоос үүдэлтэй ч бусад олон жижиг уул уурхайнууд бүрэн хүчин чадлаараа ажиллаж байгаа учир хамрах хүрээ нь өргөн байна. Үйлдвэрлэлийн салбар ч сайн байна.

Mongolia: what are the risks for an economy that's growing at 20 percent?

Rogier van den Brink's picture

Available in: монгол хэл

There is good news coming out of Mongolia, the land of the eternal blue skies. The economy racked up a second quarter of high growth: the third quarter came in at 20.8 percent, topping the equally amazing second quarter of 17.3 percent (year-on-year GDP growth), as discussed in the World Bank's latest Mongolia Quarterly Update. And while this growth spurt originated in the mining sector, with Oyu Tolgoi—a mega copper and gold mine—getting ready to start producing in 2012 and a whole battery of other, smaller mines producing at full capacity, the high growth is quite broad-based. Even manufacturing is doing well.

How will China’s external current account surplus evolve in the coming years?

Louis Kuijs's picture

How China’s current account surplus will evolve in the coming years is one of the key questions on the economic outlook, both for China itself and for the global economy. China’s increasingly competitive manufacturing sector will continue to power ahead, to expand exports and to gain global market share. At the same time, China’s domestic economy should continue to grow rapidly, thereby drawing imports. However, how this will on balance play out with regard to the current account surplus is less certain. It will largely depend on how much progress is made with rebalancing the economy.


Douglas Zhihua Zeng 曾智华's picture

(Originally posted in English)



Louis Kuijs's picture

(Originally posted in English)



China’s economic outlook and policy implications: normalization

Louis Kuijs's picture

(Available in Chinese)

This is the first blog post I write after revisiting China’s recent economic developments, the outlook, and policy implications as part of writing our latest China Quarterly Update. After this general overview I will in a few days write one on some interesting medium term trends on relative prices and the relative importance of external trade in China’s economy (they are also discussed in the Quarterly).

The term “normalization” has been used a lot lately in relation to the composition of growth and macroeconomic policy stance, also in China. But it is hard to avoid it. During 2010, China’s composition of growth started to “normalize”—as in look like it typically does—after the spectacular developments in 2009, when a massive government-led domestic demand surge offset a huge contraction in exports. Later in 2010, the macroeconomic policy stance also started to “normalize”. I guess many of us use the word “normalization” to describe or prescribe a macro policy stance that would be in line with the “normalized” economic outlook, as opposed to a particularly tight stance.