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Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

Paul the Octopus' forecast on the Thai economy: Swimming with one tentacle

Frederico Gil Sander's picture

Image courtesy of Caitfoto through a Creative Commons license
(Available in: ภาษาไทย)

Following the very successful earlier engagements of a Khmer palm reader and a celebrity turtle-shell fortune teller, the Thailand economic team has recently hired the forecasting star of the moment to divine the future of the economy. I am not talking about Professor Nouriel “Dr. Doom” Roubini, but Octopus Paul, who had to escape Germany in a hurry to avoid becoming “pulpo a la Gallega”. For a hefty fee of a five shrimps, the wise cephalopod spent a few hours in our offices sharing his prognosis for the Thai economy.

Extending the horizon—China’s medium and long term economic outlook

Louis Kuijs's picture

For a while, after the global crisis broke out, we were all preoccupied with short term prospects and developments. More recently, it has become clear that China’s economy is actually growing quite well, helped initially by a massive policy stimulus but with growth having become more broad based recently. At the same time, the global outlook is more subdued now than before the crisis. In all, this is a good time to extend the perspective and revisit medium and longer term economic prospects.

I recently wrote a working paper that discusses a medium term scenario building exercise. The objective was to get a sense of how the pace and composition of growth may develop, both from the production (supply) side and the expenditure (demand) side; whether the outlook has changed because of recent events and what the key implications of the outlook are; and how China’s living standards and the size of the economy may compare internationally in 2020.

I would of course prefer it if everybody diligently read the whole paper (526kb pdf). But, if you have better things to do in the summer during the World Cup Football, here are the key take aways.

China’s economic outlook remains favorable

Louis Kuijs's picture

The World Bank released its latest Quarterly Update on China’s economy on Friday (for disclosure's sake: I’m the lead author). At the press launch, there were a lot of questions about the recent wage hikes in several foreign-owned manufacturing companies and the possible concerns these have triggered among many about possible loss of competitiveness and/or a wage-inflation spiral.

Is there a middle class in Asia? Depends on how you define it

Vikram Nehru's picture

A colleague from the Asian Development Bank visited the other day to talk about a study he is doing on Asia’s middle class.  Yet this is not an area we have focused on in the World Bank’s East Asia region – perhaps at our cost.  I quickly googled the topic and discovered a rapidly growing literature, including a paper each by Martin Ravallion and Nancy Birdsall

World Bank opens largest set of development data --for free and in several languages

Claudia Gabarain's picture

Big news: the World Bank has launched an open data site with more than 2,000 financial, business, health, economic and human development statistics. Until now, most of this had been available only to paying subscribers.

Your questions about East Asia and Pacific's economies, answered by World Bank experts

Claudia Gabarain's picture

Ivailo Izvorski, the Lead Economist for the East Asia & Pacific region of the World Bank (and our latest blogger, below this post), and Vikram Nehru, Chief Economist for the region, held a live online chat a couple of days ago where they answered a good number of questions about China's currency, GDP forecasts, free-trade agreements, and structural reforms, among others.

What is new in Malaysia’s New Economic Model?

Philip Schellekens's picture
Malaysia's New Economic Model proposes a number of strategic reforms.

Prime Minister Najib has announced the broad outline of the proposed New Economic Model (NEM) at the Invest Malaysia conference.

The objective of the NEM is for Malaysia to join the ranks of the high-income economies, but not at all costs. The growth process needs to be both inclusive and sustainable. Inclusive growth enables the benefits to be broadly shared across all communities. Sustainable growth augments the wealth of current generations in a way that does not come at the expense of future generations.