Uganda’s human capital challenge: Turning development aspirations into reality

What do you want to be when you grow up?

That’s a question we’ve all heard—and one we considered while working on the Uganda Human Capital Development and Growth Review. As we dug into the data, we noticed how similar the aspirations of Ugandan youth are to those of young people around the world. Most want to finish school and land high-skilled, well-paid jobs. But what struck us was the size of the gap between those dreams and reality.

Just over half of Ugandans complete primary school. Only 1 in 3 attend secondary school, and even fewer finish. Just 1 in 20 go to university. Every year, around 700,000 people enter the labor market, but the economy can only absorb just over 200,000 – often in low-quality jobs. This not only leaves potential untapped but also means that the aspirations of many young Ugandans remain unfulfilled. Many youths are left idle, which can lead to frustration and disillusionment.

At the World Bank, we focus on helping countries unlock their potential by creating more and better jobs, since we see this as the cornerstone of inclusive growth. For us, human capital—the knowledge, skills, and health people accumulate over their lifetime— is at the heart of development. When updating the Human Capital Index (HCI), we discovered that a child born in Uganda today will reach only 39% of their productive potential by adulthood. That is well below the global average of 56% and means 61% of Uganda’s potential is not being harnessed, which is critical to reach Uganda’s ambitious development goals.

Uganda’s population is one of the youngest in the world, with about half under 18 years of age. Today, about 15 million Ugandans are of working age, and that number is set to nearly double by 2040 (Figure 1). With the right investments in health, education, and jobs, this young population could become a powerful engine of economic growth. Without those investments, Uganda risks missing its demographic dividend—the window when a large working-age population can drive development.

Figure 1. Population Projection for Uganda, 2024-2050

Source: World Bank, based on Uganda Bureau of Statistics, National Mid-year Population Projections by Single Age (2015–2050), 2022.

We conducted an in-depth analysis of Uganda’s position across key human capital pillars. Here’s what we discovered:

Education: Uganda has made strides in education, particularly in expanding access to primary schooling. But completion rates are still among the lowest in the region. Many children are not acquiring even basic reading and math skills. Ugandan students complete nearly seven years of schooling on average, but adjusted for learning, this drops to around four years. That gap is largely due to overcrowded classrooms, a lack of effective teaching, and underfunded schools. These challenges are set to be exacerbated by increasing refugee arrivals. We were surprised to learn that Government spending on education is just 2.7% of GDP—far below the East African Community regional average of 4.2%.

Health: Life expectancy has climbed significantly from 46 years in 1990 to nearly 69 years today, thanks to improved health services, standards of living, and successful health promotion and disease prevention. But challenges remain. One in four children under five are stunted and will not reach their full potential, which over time could result in as much as 11 percent of GDP lost. Neonatal, maternal mortality, and teenage pregnancy rates remain high and the burden from non-communicable diseases and public health emergencies is rising fast. The health system struggles with understaffing, inadequate equipment, and long waiting times, attributed largely to low public health spending (1% of GDP), with most costs (83%) falling on households or donors.

Water: Despite progress, basic water and sanitation services fall short in many parts of Uganda. Nearly 12 million people lack access to basic water supply and 38 million don’t have safely managed sanitation. We learned that just one-third of schools and barely half of health centers have reliable water services. Poor water, sanitation, and hygiene access (WASH) undermines both health and education outcomes and needs urgent attention.

Social Protection: Today, only about 3% of Ugandans are covered by safety nets. That’s not enough in a country with high poverty rates and frequent exposure to economic and climate shocks. Public spending is low compared to neighboring countries (0.14% of GDP, compared to 0.3 and 0.4% in Rwanda and Kenya, respectively). We believe building a more robust, shock-responsive safety net is essential to protect the most vulnerable and support resilience.

Jobs: We found that jobs are a major challenge in Uganda. Underemployment has quadrupled in the past decade, and over half of young people aged 18 to 30 are not in employment, education, or training (NEET) (Figure 2). We saw evidence of skills mismatches—some high-skilled jobs are filled by workers with only a primary education, while some low-skilled jobs are held by university graduates. This highlights the need for job-matching systems and alignment between training and market demand.

Figure 2. Labor Market Trends for Youths Aged 18–30 (%)

Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics. Labour Force Surveys 2011-12, 2016-17, and 2021 and the 2024 Census.

So, what’s the way forward?

We believe Uganda can double its progress in human capital outcomes by strategically investing in its people. By prioritizing equitable, quality human capital interventions, and by coordinating effectively across sectors and levels of government, Uganda can raise its HCI to 0.56 by 2040 (Figure 3), bringing Uganda closer to its ambition of growing its economy tenfold in the next 15 years. On the other hand, the business-as-usual scenario will result in an HCI of 0.45 by 2040, far off from the country’s ambition.

Figure 3. Two Scenarios for Human Capital in Uganda: Business-as-usual or Vision 2040

Source: World Bank, based on data from UBOS and the World Development Indicators.

Together with the Government, our team identified four “game changer” recommendations to help accelerate progress:

1. Focus on high-impact interventions that reduce child stunting, expand early childhood education, and improve WASH in institutions and homes.
2. Gradually increase public spending on human capital sectors and make sure this funding is protected from budget cuts.
3. Improve the efficiency of existing programs by strengthening data systems, offering performance-based incentives, and engaging communities.
4. Enable stronger cross-sectoral and intergovernmental collaboration to improve planning, delivery, and accountability.

With decisive action and sustained commitment, we believe Uganda can harness its greatest asset—its people—to transform its development aspirations into reality.

Related Links:

Full report - Uganda Human Capital Development and Growth Review

Interview on X Spaces with authors

What Do You Want to Be? Education and Work Aspirations Among the Ugandan Youth