When heat drains growth: The human cost of rising temperatures in Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s remarkable progress over the past decades is a story the world has celebrated. Poverty has fallen, life expectancy has risen, and the country’s economy has grown steadily despite shocks and challenges. But the threat posed by climate change, and in particular rising heat, is now putting these hard-won gains at risk.

A new World Bank report, An Unsustainable Life: The Impact of Heat on Health and the Economy of Bangladesh, paints a sobering picture. It shows that heat is no longer just an environmental concern. It is a pressing development challenge that is already eroding health, productivity, and resilience.

The Human and Economic Toll of Heat

The evidence is clear: Bangladesh is among the most heat-exposed countries in the world, ranking second globally in population exposure to rising temperatures. Between 1980 and 2023, maximum temperatures in Bangladesh rose by 1.1°C, while the “feels like” temperature, what people experience, climbed by 4.5°C. The past nine years have been the hottest on record worldwide, and Bangladesh is on the frontlines.

The consequences are staggering. In 2024 alone, extreme heat caused an estimated 250 million lost workdays, costing the economy US$1.3 to 1.8 billion, or 0.3 to 0.4 percent of GDP. These losses are not simply from discomfort. They are driven by increased incidences of heat-related illnesses such as diarrhea, respiratory problems, exhaustion, depression, and anxiety. On extremely hot days above 37°C, productivity losses were 36 percent higher compared to milder ones.

Heat-Driven Illnesses on the Rise

Compared to cooler days, extreme heat exposure sharply increased the risk of both physical and mental health conditions:

• Persistent cough rose by 22.7 percent on days above 30°C, with prevalence doubling from 3.3 percent in winter to 6.0 percent in summer.
• Heat exhaustion increased by 26.5 percent on days above 35°C, affecting 2.6 percent of respondents in summer, especially working-age adults and the elderly.
• Diarrhea risk climbed by 47.7 percent on days above 35°C, with cases rising from 1.8 percent in winter to 4.4 percent in summer, disproportionately among children under five and women.
• Depression was 23.8 percent more likely on very hot days, with prevalence rising from 16.2 percent in winter to 20.0 percent in summer.
• Anxiety disorders increased by 37.1 percent on very hot days, with rates rising from 8.3 percent in winter to 10.0 percent in summer.

Children, women, the elderly, and the poor are generally most vulnerable to heat stress. These health shocks translate directly into lower labor capacity, higher absenteeism and presenteeism, and ultimately lost productivity across the economy.

A Path Forward

The good news is that Bangladesh is not powerless in the face of this challenge. The report outlines concrete steps that can help the country adapt and protect its people:

1. Recognize heatwaves as disasters: Just as floods are treated as national emergencies, heatwaves must be formally integrated into disaster preparedness and financing frameworks. A multi-sectoral task force could help coordinate action across health, education, disaster management, and local governments.
2. Make the health system climate resilient: Hospitals and clinics must be equipped to handle heat stress through infrastructure upgrades, better cooling, and staff training to diagnose and treat heat-related illnesses, including mental health conditions. Vulnerable groups such as children, women, and the elderly must be prioritized.
3. Invest in prevention and preparedness: Early warning systems that combine weather and health data can trigger timely public advisories. Expanding urban greenery, such as trees, parks, and water bodies, can help reduce dangerous urban heat island effects. Public campaigns can encourage protective behaviors such as staying hydrated and avoiding exposure during peak heat hours.
4. Strengthen data systems: More granular climate and health data, including localized heat indices, will improve targeting of public health measures and evidence-based decision-making.
5. Mobilize international support: By quantifying the health and economic costs of extreme heat, Bangladesh can make a stronger case for accessing climate finance and loss-and-damage funds to support adaptation.

Action, not complacency

The World Bank is already working with the Government of Bangladesh to pilot heat-health action plans through the Urban Health, Nutrition, and Population Project while addressing climate vulnerable health conditions through the Health, Population and Nutrition Sector Development Program.

The message is simple but urgent: extreme heat is already here, and it is taking a heavy toll through heat-driven illnesses that sap productivity and strain health systems. But solutions exist, and Bangladesh can lead with evidence and action. By protecting human capital and making resilience a national priority, the country can continue its trajectory of growth and development, even in a warming world.