Collapse of the road platform due to a slope failure under saturated soil conditions in Zumbahua, Cotopaxi Province, Ecuador. Photo: World Bank Group.
Over the past four decades, Ecuador has experienced 93 major natural disasters, causing more than 7,600 deaths and affecting over one-fifth of the population. Floods, landslides, earthquakes, and other hazards have repeatedly damaged infrastructure, isolated communities, and disrupted livelihoods—particularly among the poorest households.
These disasters do not affect Ecuador uniformly. Floods and rainfall-induced landslides occur most frequently and have the greatest impact on transport infrastructure, isolating provinces and cantons, disrupting agricultural production, and reducing incomes in vulnerable communities. Earthquakes occur less often but account for the greatest loss of life.
Ecuador’s National Road Network (NRN) is the backbone of the country. It links rural producers to markets, connects communities to hospitals and schools, and supports domestic and international trade. Yet this network is highly exposed to flooding, landslides, earthquakes, and other natural hazards, and climate change is expected to intensify these threats by increasing the frequency and severity of disruptions. The consequences go far beyond physical damage: emergency responses become slower and less effective, access to essential services is interrupted, and even short disruptions can mean lost income and greater vulnerability to poverty, particularly in rural areas.
Figure 1 – Natural hazards affecting Ecuador’s transport infrastructure
Measuring the Risk
A recent assessment of Ecuador’s NRN quantified both the direct and indirect impacts of natural and climate-related hazards. Direct risk refers to physical damage to roads and bridges, while indirect risk captures the economic and social losses caused by disrupted connectivity.
Under current climate conditions, these hazards generate annual economic losses of about USD 139.5 million—USD 90.4 million in direct damage to roads and bridges, and USD 49.1 million in indirect losses from disrupted connectivity. Without adaptation measures, losses could increase to USD 159.1 million by 2050 and USD 171.5 million by 2070.
Exposure is particularly high in Cotopaxi, Esmeraldas, Guayas, and Pichincha, where high-risk roads and bridges represent priority targets for resilience investments.
Figure 2 – Road network risk under baseline conditions and the 2050 climate scenario (SSP5-8.5)
When Hazards Meet Aging Infrastructure
Disruptions depend not only on the intensity of hazards but also on the condition of infrastructure. Deteriorated roads and bridges are more likely to fail when exposed to floods, landslides, or extreme rainfall, and they often take longer to repair. Poor asset conditions not only increase the likelihood of failure, but also extend repair times, amplifying economic losses and social disruption.
Despite its strategic importance, in Ecuador, only 55 percent of arterial roads, 43 percent of collector roads, and 66 percent of bridges are currently in good condition. This structural deficit reduces the network’s ability to absorb shocks and increases the likelihood that extreme weather will cause road closures.
Hazards such as flooding or slope instability can trigger wider disruptions when they affect already vulnerable assets. Poor drainage, weakened pavements, and unstable slopes can turn localized events into regional connectivity failures. Rising temperatures present an additional challenge by increasing maintenance needs and potentially shortening infrastructure lifespan. Together, these pressures underscore the need to strengthen both infrastructure quality and maintenance systems.
Figure 3. Recent events: damage to road infrastructure caused by a slope failure associated with intense rainfall, Zumbahua, Cotopaxi Province, Ecuador.
The Financing Gap
Resources for prevention and emergency response remain limited. Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport’s 2025 investment budget totals USD 258 million, of which only USD 45 million is allocated to natural hazard emergencies. In recent years, annual spending on prevention has averaged USD 30 million, far below estimated annual losses. This gap highlights the need to shift from reactive reconstruction to proactive investments that reduce risk before disasters occur.
Figure 4 – Estimated annual economic losses from natural and climate hazards in Ecuador’s road network
Building a More Resilient Network
Strengthening resilience is not only about protecting infrastructure, it is also an investment in economic stability and public safety. Priorities include updating design standards for future climate conditions, strengthening monitoring and inspection systems, integrating climate considerations into maintenance, and adopting modern pavement technologies to extend asset life and reduce vulnerability.
These efforts are being supported through the Emergency Resilient Reconstruction Project. The project restores connectivity in disaster-affected areas while strengthening infrastructure resilience. It supports improvements in emergency preparedness and the development of a Road Asset Management System (RAMS) and Early Warning Systems (EWS). By centralizing technical information and georeferenced records of past disruptions, these tools help identify high-risk assets, support predictive maintenance, and improve planning for investments and emergency response.
Looking Ahead
Ecuador’s National Road Network is essential for economic growth, job creation, and social connectivity. As risks intensify, resilience must become a pillar of infrastructure policy. Investing in resilient infrastructure today can significantly reduce future losses: every US$1 invested can generate about US$4 in avoided damages and disruption costs.
Ecuador can build a National Road Network capable of withstanding increasingly complex climate conditions. Protecting this network ultimately means protecting livelihoods, market access, and opportunities for millions of Ecuadorians.
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