Shared water infrastructure, shared prosperity: Investing in Central Asia's future

In Central Asia, where important bodies of water cross national borders, systems that control the flow of water can contribute to stability and prosperity, securing regional cooperation, and stimulating economic growth. These systems—or hydraulic structures—more than 50,000 in number—play a vital role in supporting the regional water-energy-food nexus, which is essential for the economic and environmental resilience of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 

Shared water systems serve as pillars for transboundary cooperation in a region under growing pressure from extreme weather, natural disasters, population growth, and increasing economic demands. Their effective management is crucial for hydropower generation, water supply, agriculture, and mitigating risks from floods and droughts.

However, many of these facilities were built over 40 years ago and are in poor condition. This poses significant risks to downstream communities. 

Investing in the modernization and rehabilitation of shared water infrastructure is crucial for enhancing water security and economic growth; however, financial constraints pose a major challenge. This lack of financial resources delays the modernization of irrigation systems, the implementation of proper dam safety measures, and the development of other critical water management infrastructures. But the risks of doing nothing are high. 

Inefficient water management practices could lead to a projected decline in the regional GDP by up to 6% by 2050. The increasing severity of extreme weather events and rising temperatures pose serious risks to irrigated agriculture, driving up operational costs, and putting additional strain on water infrastructure. For example, rising heat and increased evaporation will increase irrigation requirements in Uzbekistan by at least 5% by 2030, 7-10% by 2050, and 12-16% by 2080. 

At the same time, Central Asia faces growing uncertainty in water supply due to shifting precipitation patterns and melting glaciers—key sources of the region’s river flow. These changes put pressure on traditional water-sharing agreements that are based on Soviet-era allocations, highlighting the need for updated cooperative frameworks to manage these resources effectively.

Models for Successful Transboundary Water Management

Transboundary water management is facilitated through various bilateral and regional mechanisms, including agreements on the use and maintenance of shared water infrastructure, such as hydropower plants and dams. Although cooperation between countries exists in shared river basins—such as through development of legal frameworks and the creation of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination—policies of self-interest, inadequate investments, and insufficient data sharing continue to present challenges. The importance of international cooperation and the role of global development agencies in facilitating dialogue and investment in infrastructure improvements cannot be overstressed. There is a critical need for a more integrated approach to water resources management that includes stakeholder engagement from all sectors of society, improved coordination of dam investments and operations, and legal agreements and enhanced technical capabilities to support a resilient water-energy-food nexus in Central Asia.

There are many cooperative mechanisms established across Central Asia for the management of shared water infrastructure. These mechanisms are pivotal for sustaining regional water security and facilitating equitable resource sharing. For example, the agreement between Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic over the Chu and Talas rivers establishes joint commissions responsible for the operation and maintenance of shared water infrastructure. This model of cooperation has been replicated in agreements between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan for managing the Farkhad Hydropower Complex and other shared water bodies.

Importance of Institutional Frameworks 

Institutional frameworks underpin collaborative agreements and bring legal and operational clarity. Joint water commissions and basin organizations are a best practice for institutional cooperation. Commissions are primarily responsible for the operational aspects such as day-to-day management, such as scheduling water releases, overseeing the maintenance of hydraulic structures, and conducting safety inspections, whereas basin organizations focus on long-term resource planning, policy development, and coordination among stakeholders to address broader challenges. 

Despite the successes, the challenges that persist in transboundary water cooperation are still many. However, collaborative agreements have generally led to improved water resources management, reduced tension, and enhanced resilience to variable water supply. The agreements have established clear protocols for water sharing and emergency response, which have been crucial during periods of drought or flooding.

Shared water infrastructure in Central Asia presents significant opportunities for regional cooperation and sustainable development. By investing in and managing resources collaboratively, countries can enhance water security, boost economic growth, and reduce risks. This collaborative approach could foster improved relationships between nations, facilitate the equitable sharing of water resources, and promote the adoption of innovative water management technologies. By taking this opportunity for cooperation, Central Asian countries can promote the stability and prosperity of the entire region.