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development research

Have RCTs taken over development economics?

David McKenzie's picture

Last week the “State of Economics, State of the World” conference was held at the World Bank. I had the pleasure of discussing (along with Martin Ravallion) Esther Duflo’s talk on “The Influence of Randomized Controlled Trials on Development Economics Research and on Development Policy”. The website should have links to the papers and video stream replay up (if not already, then soon).

The first part of Esther’s talk traced out the growth in RCTs in development economics. She pointed out that in 2000 the top-5 journals published 21 articles in development, of which 0 were RCTs, while in 2015 there were 32, of which 10 were RCTs – so pretty much all the growth in development papers in top journals comes from RCTs. She also showed that the more recently BREAD members had received their PhD, the more likely they were to have done at least one RCT.
In my discussion I expanded on these facts to put them in context, and argue against what I see as a couple of strawman arguments: 1) that top journals only publish RCTs, and that RCTs have taken over development research; and 2) that young researchers have a “randomize or bust” attitude and refuse to do anything but RCTs. I thought I’d summarize what I said on both here.

What’s in a title? Signaling external validity through paper titles in development economics

David Evans's picture

External validity is a recurring concern in impact evaluation: How applicable is what I learn in Benin or in Pakistan to some other country? There are a host of important technical issues around external validity, but at some level, policy makers and technocrats in Country A examine the evidence from Country B and think about how likely it is to apply in Country A. But how likely are they to consider the evidence from Country B in the first place?